National Lung Cancer Screening Program – Updated participation modelling

This modelling provides participation estimates for the first 3 years of program implementation (2025/26–27/28) for individuals who are eligible for the National Lung Cancer Screening Program.

Downloads

Participation volume analyses report

Instructions

Participation model

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Publication date:
Publication type:
Report
Audience:
Health sector
Language:
English
Description:

The report describes the methods and results of modelling work undertaken to estimate the expected numbers of eligibility assessments, LDCT scans, and further investigations associated with the implementation of the National Lung Cancer Screening Program in Australia.

The participation modelling is an excel document used to support the participation modelling. It includes 2 distinct scenarios to support jurisdictions in preparing for the launch of the program:

  • Base Case: this scenario models screening participation based on the agreed eligibility criteria – individuals with a smoking history of 30 pack-years and who have quit within the past 10 years.
  • Scenario 1: this scenario explores participation, based on a larger screening population including individuals with a smoking history of 20 pack-years and who have quit within the past 20 years. It overestimates the potential screening population, recognising that smoking histories are not always accurately quantified and accounting for individuals who may be enrolled in the program despite not strictly meeting the formal eligibility criteria.

The instructions provide guidance on inputting and translating data from the participation modelling excel spreadsheet.

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