This strategy was informed by the Nursing Supply and Demand Study – 2023-2035.27 The nursing supply and demand model was developed to provide a single, consistent, and integrated data evidence base for use in local, state and national workforce and service planning. The model starts from a point of equilibrium in 2022 and predicts what could happen if Australia does not address the demand for and supply of the nursing workforce. The demand for nurses is being driven by numerous factors including, an ageing population, increasingly complex and chronic conditions, a geographically dispersed population, the impacts of climate change and advancements in technology.
The national projections found that while both supply and demand of the workforce are estimated to increase during the projection period, without reform, supply is not expected to keep pace with demand.
Figure 1 shows baseline projections at a national level and across all sectors, with an undersupply of 70,707 full-time equivalent (FTE) nurses in 2035, which equates to around 79,473 nurses needed to fill the gap.
The National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Workforce Strategic Framework and Implementation Plan 2021-2031 set a target of 3.43% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people being represented in the national health workforce by 2031.
The projected supply of employed nurses in 2035 is 470,859, which implies an estimated shortfall of around 9,088 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander nurses to meet the supply target of 3.43%.
Figure 1. National supply and demand of Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Nurses 2023-2035
Note – for sector specific supply and demand projections see Nursing Supply and Demand Study – 2023-2035.
The nursing workforce projections indicate that if no strategic action is taken, supply of nurses will not keep pace with the needs of the population and increasing demand for care.
With this knowledge is the accountability and impetus for all stakeholders to act and intervene. Without action this undersupply of nurses in Australia will have a direct adverse impact on the health of the population in Australia and its prosperity as a nation.