Doherty Institute modelling by jurisdiction sizes

The modelling shows that:

• small jurisdictions are more likely to experience acute clinical load stress and possible overloading of surge capacity early in an outbreak compared to larger jurisdictions
• hospital capacity challenges are heightened when transition occurs at with higher initial community case numbers
• larger jurisdictions will have less likelihood of surpassing their surge capacity even at the height of local epidemic spread, but their projected ‘living with COVID’ capacity may be exceeded.