Doherty Institute modelling by jurisdiction sizes

The Doherty Institute have provided updated modelling for COVID-19 outbreak and health system capacity scenarios, for each jurisdiction.


Doherty Institute modelling by jurisdiction sizes

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The modelling shows that:

  • small jurisdictions are more likely to experience acute clinical load stress and possible overloading of surge capacity early in an outbreak compared to larger jurisdictions
  • hospital capacity challenges are heightened when transition occurs at with higher initial community case numbers
  • larger jurisdictions will have less likelihood of surpassing their surge capacity even at the height of local epidemic spread, but their projected ‘living with COVID’ capacity may be exceeded.

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