PAUL KELLY:
Good afternoon, everyone. Paul Kelly here in Canberra to give an update on the COVID situation here in the country. So a few points I'll make before I go to questions. We are seeing an increase in the numbers of cases, particularly in New South Wales, but also here where I am in the ACT, as well as in Victoria, mostly in Melbourne but in more recent times in Shepparton. So these cases, 917 today, is as high as we've seen throughout the whole pandemic; 832 in New South Wales is an unfortunate new record for a day here in Australia.
The numbers of cases that are starting to also present to hospital intensive care are also increasing, particularly in New South Wales but also in other jurisdictions. This is something we've been planning for 18 months, exactly this sort of situation. And we know that our hospitals, particularly our intensive care, are ready for this, and they are- what we did from right at the beginning of the pandemic was to prepare for this type of event of severe cases of COVID. It's the reason why we've had so much work and the lockdown measures and so forth is to suppress that to a great degree. The key component to suppression of severe illness of course is vaccination. We've been saying that for some months now, and we are now really seeing extraordinary numbers of people being vaccinated might run the country and particularly and specifically in those hot spot areas in South-West and western Sydney. Those extra doses that arrived last year- last week are going in arms as we speak. Really important to bring the numbers of cases we're seeing under control eventually, but particularly to protect people from that severe end of the spectrum.
Just on numbers of vaccines, yesterday another record day in terms of a weekend. So 196,000 doses on a Saturday; that's extraordinary. Thank you everyone involved with that effort and for those that came forward to be vaccinated yesterday.
That brought us up to 1.1 million doses in just four days - 1.1 million in four days. We're getting close to that 2 million a week mark, and that's certainly what we're planning to do in the coming weeks. We now have 17 million doses have been administered around Australia and particularly those older age groups. So 75 per cent of over 50s are now- have now received at least one vaccination; 80 per cent of over 60s have received at least one vaccination; and 85 per cent of over 70s have received at least one vaccination.
And we know that one vaccination in itself can protect very strongly against the severe end of the spectrum of disease, hospitalisation, ICU admission, and unfortunately death. We know the majority of deaths and the majority of ICU admissions have been in unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people, and so full vaccination is what we're aiming for. If you've had one vaccination, please do not hesitate to get that second vaccine of that same type. If you are particularly over the age of 60, do not hesitate to get the vaccination which is available to you right now, and that's AstraZeneca. It is a safe vaccine. It is very effective - at least as effective as Pfizer over time against the severe end of disease. So that's my vaccination message. Do not wait; get on with that.
Finally, just one big shout out to what will- the other key component of what will get us through these coming weeks and months, is about collaboration between states and territories and the Commonwealth, non-government organisations, and the community. And there is the very best example of that at the moment happening in western and far-western New South Wales, where we have an ongoing outbreak particularly related to aboriginal communities in that area. We have on the ground right now an AUSMAT team looking to expand that over the coming days. We have ADF resources, we have New South Wales Health, we have the local hospital district, we have Aboriginal community controlled organisations, Aboriginal community organisations, and ourselves here in the Commonwealth through the National Indigenous Agency. All of those- we are all working collaboratively on that, and the Royal Flying Doctor Service going out to very remote areas, vaccinating whole groups of people. I think one day this week in a pub, so they're looking to actually do whatever they can to vaccinate as many people as possible in this outbreak area. And that is really the key in the coming weeks is to work together to address these important issues and get on top of the virus.
So I'll go to Clare first in the room. Thanks for coming.
QUESTION:
Thank you, Professor. A couple of questions. There's been a lot of debate around the Doherty modelling of 70 and 80 per cent, and when we can move to those different stages, suggestion that that modelling was only done based on a lower number of cases. Could you clarify if we were in New South Wales to reach 70 or 80 per cent vaccination but the case numbers remain high, would it be possible to move through those phases of reopening?
PAUL KELLY:
So, just to be clear, what the Doherty modelling is and what it isn't. Firstly, it's a model, it always has assumptions. All models have assumptions in it. The assumption made on the original modelling, which was requested by National Cabinet to be done by the Doherty Institute - and we've all seen that, it's in the public domain now - was based on the low number of cases coming in to 70 or 80 per cent. But then with an injection of enough cases to make an exponential growth of cases in the community at the national level. So it was always on that case, and it very clearly demonstrated - just to remind people of what it did demonstrate is that if you- if that happens at a low rate, so 50 or even 60 per cent vaccination, within weeks, you get large numbers of people in hospital and stress on the hospital system. You would get ICU admissions and debts. But the point was it starts with a large outbreak.
Now, what that does, over time, once you get to 70 and 80 per cent, those numbers decrease, and it's the effect of the vaccination of controlling those numbers of severe illness which is the important component of the modelling. If you start from a higher base, and we've asked the Doherty and the- I had discussions on Friday after National Cabinet, because National Cabinet was very interested in exactly this question you've asked, is- so they're doing that modelling again now. But on first principles, that same effect that you have at 70 and 80 per cent would be the same effect. It would minimise the number of people in ICU particularly and in hospitalisation. How that exactly affects it is the work being done by the Doherty modelling this week.
QUESTION:
We're weeks away from the mid-September deadline for the states to introduce public health orders mandating vaccinations among aged-care workers. Brad Hazzard, the Health Minister, has said today, New South Wales, he would've preferred it be done on a Commonwealth bio-security health measure, but not done by jurisdiction. Given the jurisdiction route is what was selected at National Cabinet, are you concerned that there are still states that have not enforced that law and we are now weeks away from these aged-care workers meeting that deadline?
PAUL KELLY:
So, my understanding is that all states are going down that path. Some of them have actually publicly shown that order, and so that the aged-care facilities and the sector more broadly have some weeks to work through that and to see how that will work in mid-September. The other states are along that path as well. So I think we're past that discussion now.
I might just go to Jane on the phone. Jane Norman from ABC.
QUESTION:
Hi, Professor Kelly. I've got two questions if possible. Firstly, the West Australian Premier, Mark McGowan, has today said again that WA has eliminated Delta and- eliminated COVID and he wants to keep it that way. I'm just wondering if you believe that is a sustainable long-term strategy? And if in any jurisdiction around the world has managed to maintain zero COVID? And, yep, that's the questions, thanks.
PAUL KELLY:
So, the answer is no. The only places in the world that have not seen any COVID at all are the ones that could technically say they've eliminated but they never saw it at all, would be some of the Pacific Island countries. And that's because they've essentially been cut off from the rest of the world for the last 18 months. Even in New Zealand, which I would say would be the poster jurisdiction for elimination, and they have very clearly and recently stated that remains their aim, are now coping with an outbreak in Auckland and beyond. Western Australia have done extremely well up to now, mostly relying on their very strong border controls, both external to the rest of the world and to the rest of Australia. The matters of how WA want- see themselves working through the pandemic over time is really a matter for them but I will say that the whole of National Cabinet including the West Australian Premier did sign up to the plan only a couple of weeks ago.
Just go to Greg Brown, thanks.
QUESTION:
Oh, hello, Professor Kelly. Did Professor McVernon actually tell you that she believes her research would still be valid with the sort of caseloads that we're seeing now? Or are we back to the drawing board, given that she's doing more research, and she's doing more- she's going to present to National Cabinet? [Indistinct] at this stage, we just don't know.
PAUL KELLY:
So to be very clear, the modelling that was done by the Doherty Institute was under the auspices of National Cabinet. They were given their instructions about what they were- National Cabinet wanted to see from the modelling. That was what was presented a few weeks ago now. That was the underpinning of the national plan and when the various gates would happen between the phases.
What- the discussion that happened last week, on Friday, was exactly your question. Does this need to go back to the drawing board? The answer is absolutely not. The assumptions, of course, with all modelling can be changed. And sensitivity analysis - that's the technical term for what has been done by the Doherty Institute - can be relatively and easily done. The general principles and, yes, I have had a discussion with Jodie McVernon about this, remain the same. The model itself remains the same. It's a tweak to the assumption. So that's the work that's being done this week. As I said in the previous answer to the same question, I don't think it will materially change things a lot. But that's- let's see and have an open mind to what our modellers can show us and I have full faith in that group.
QUESTION:
So what's your message then to state Premiers and Chief Ministers who are saying they deserve the right to lock down at 70 and 80 per cent vaccination rates because essentially the Doherty modelling is not based on the reality of what we're seeing now?
PAUL KELLY:
So, as I said, I don't think that the- how we enter into those 70 or 80 per cent vaccination rates, the number of cases in the community will radically change that but I'm open to the modelling that's happening. We'll see what that shows later on. In terms of what- how we go into those next phases, all the way through, and particularly in phase B - so we're in phase A now, phase B would be the phase at 70 per cent as it's currently said from the modelling - it's not just vaccination. There is definitely and very clearly stated there may have to be other ways of keeping that r-effective number below one and therefore- or around one, to keep those cases under control. So how that works once we get to those points, will depend to a certain extent on the local- particularly on the local vaccination rates. And so certain jurisdictions have low vaccination rates, then that will be an issue. But the other elements are- will depend that local circumstance.
But to be very clear, there is an agreement at National Cabinet at the moment, and all states are unanimous in that. There will be a four stage plan, that the gates into those plans will be at 70 and 80 per cent vaccination rates and the more nuanced local elements of that will be worked out over the coming weeks with the Doherty modelling as part of, but not the only element that we would consider in relation to that.
Clare, just finally.
QUESTION:
[Talks over] Professor Kelly.
PAUL KELLY:
You go, Jane.
QUESTION:
Professor Kelly. Jane Norman. I just have one follow-up question, I'm sorry. We are obviously in a fairly fortunate position because we can look overseas to various countries and how they are re-opening with high vaccination rates. I'm just wondering [indistinct] experience of Canada, Israel, the UK which have all managed to achieve at least 70 to 75 per cent population coverage, are any of those an example that Australia should be following? What lessons are we learning from those experiences?
PAUL KELLY:
yeah, lots of lessons, and I think it is valuable for us to look at those countries in particular. Israel, very successful and widespread vaccination very quickly. The UK, I had a discussion with my UK counterpart and their chief scientist I think the week before last around this matter, and it's a really good case in point about how we enter into those changes in the mechanisms of lockdowns and other social measures, depending on the case rate and the vaccination rate. And so when UK decided to open up, they did have an increase in cases but not an increase in any great extent in deaths, or in hospitalisations, or in ICUs except in some small pockets of the population, particularly in the Midlands, where they had lower than the national average vaccination rates. So they have actually done what we are proposing to do at that around 80 per cent rate of vaccination, and that was the effect that they had. Israel similarly, they've recently seen an increase in cases but the death rates and the hospitalisation rates have not increased to a great extent. But we're absolutely looking at those every day and every week, and both of those countries in particular, and learning from their experiences. Clare, final question.
QUESTION:
Just quickly on children, it's been said a lot now that we're just waiting for ATAGI to finalise the advice on 12 to 15 year olds. Originally, in the vaccine rollout plan any additional age groups like children were put in the back of the queue. Given that 16 to 39 year olds- 29 year olds in particular, are only getting access in a couple of weeks, would you expect they would have an opportunity to get the vaccine before 12 to 15 year olds who are healthy and not in any of those priority categories?
PAUL KELLY:
Yes, so children, absolutely. They- we're looking at what should be done in vaccination in children right now. The TGA did look at and have approved Pfizer for the 12 to 15 year age group. We don't have- nowhere in the world has vaccination available to under 12s at this stage. 12 to 15 year age group, we asked the Doherty modellers to look specifically at what would be the best way to protect them and what would be the influence on vaccinating children on the wider transmission potential. And their answer was very clear: vaccinate the parents. You vaccinate that young adult age group, it protects the kids. It also decreases the transmission potential which decreases number of cases in the community which protects the kids.
Of course, vaccinating children will also protect them and ATAGI is working on that advice. They- I was able to report to National Cabinet on Friday that that was going ahead. And so I fully expect this week we'll get some advice from ATAGI in relation to the wider vaccination program for children. Sorry, for adolescents, over that 12 to 15 age group. We know that 16 to 18 year olds are included in that young adult group, really. They work the same and so that's rolling out, particularly and specifically in those high-risk areas of South-West and Western Sydney.
QUESTION:
Just lastly on the Delta variant in general, Sydney was initially criticised for not going into lockdown hard enough and fast enough. By contrast you've had Melbourne and the ACT going to a hard and fast lockdown and still struggling to suppress the number of cases in the way we might have previously expected. What lessons are we taking here? Is it possible that Victoria, just like New South Wales, may never get back down to zero? And what could that mean for if there is an outbreak in another state or territory, should they still go down this hard and fast lockdown route?
PAUL KELLY:
So we're learning from the virus all the time, the Delta virus is quite clearly different to the original virus that we had. We were very successful in those approaches to lockdown, including in New South Wales up to the current outbreak with a less stringent approach. Delta is more infectious, it's quite clearly the case. 100 per cent of people in a household when there is a case there will become infected. We know there are super spreading events are more likely than with previous types of this virus. So, all of those things we learned last year, those individual behaviours, mask wearing, as most of us are doing in the room today, and needed in more widely, and right throughout lockdown areas. Those personal habits of how we wash our hands and so forth, those lockdown measures that have been introduced quite stringently in all the states. They help, but without vaccination, we can't get on top of this.
So my absolutely clear message today is if you are eligible to get a vaccination, do not hesitate. The best vaccination you can get is the one that's available to you right now. There are slots available on the weekends in GP surgeries, in pharmacies all around Australia, in state-run clinics, and all over the place. So please, do not hesitate, those vaccines are available. If you have not got vaccinated yet, go and get that first booking. If you've had one vaccination, please do not hesitate to get your second booking. That is the only way we are going to get these- the current situation under control. It's looking very positive from that perspective with 17 million doses already in arms but let's keep going Australia.
Contact
