PAUL KELLY:
Good afternoon, everyone. Paul Kelly here in Canberra. I'm joined by General Frewen, as well as Ramos, my trusty interpreter. So just a quick update on a few matters in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, and particularly in relation to the Omicron variant.
So I think it's- the first thing I'd like to say, I think we are now seeing that we have cases throughout the country, other than Western Australia. We've had local transmission in recent days, so this is truly a national issue. As it was back in 2020 when we went through that first wave of COVID-19 and we got through that, and we will get through this current situation. What we know is that there are cases increasing in several states, particularly in New South Wales, but also other parts of the country. And there are some places that are seeing cases for the first time, locally transmitted. This is what we knew would happen. There's an expectation that as we opened up as a society, became more attune to living with COVID, that indeed we have to live with COVID. We will have cases in the community. That is not a surprise.
What's happened in the last three weeks, of course, is the added complexity of Omicron. Again, that is not a surprise that we've seen variants come - we have seen them come and go previously. But Omicron is definitely spreading. It gives us further issues to consider, because there's still a lot we don't know about this virus. We do know a lot more than we did three weeks ago, and every day we learn something new.
So just to share that in summary. I've spoken before about what we know, what we don't know, and how we're finding it out. I'm continuing to talk to international colleagues. We're continuing to look at the increasing amount of data and information that is coming from studies, particularly in the UK where they have a rising number of cases, but also from South Africa, where we have very close links. This morning I spoke to colleagues in the US, and we talked about very similar issues that are being faced in the United States as we are here as we get to know this new variant. So we know that it is more transmissible; it is definitely transmissible. We are seeing that here in Australia. Over in many countries we are seeing a very rapid transmission of the virus, and that is what we are seeing here. We've seen super-spreader events in Newcastle, for example. We've seen in- also in other parts of the country where that has led to a number of infections. We know that the vaccine - that the first two doses of the vaccine - are not as effective at stopping infection and mild illness as it was with recent- with previous variants of the virus.
We also know, and this is new information, that the vaccine remains effective against severe disease, perhaps a little less than it is the case against with Delta, for example, but it does remain effective. And I think that's one of the reasons why we are seeing increases in cases, but not so much of an increase in hospitalisations or other forms of severe disease. So that is important. That's exactly what we're seeing here in Australia. What will happen in the coming weeks, we will know in the coming weeks. We're getting information all the time, as I said, particularly from the UK, and increasingly from our own experience about that severity element. But that vaccine efficacy is an important thing.
We also know that boosters do indeed boost that protection, both against transmission and infection, and against severe disease back to the sort of levels we have seen with two doses for Delta, three doses for Omicron is roughly equal. So that is the crucial point. And points, of course, directly to the importance of the booster program, and General Frewen will talk a bit more about that. But just specifically on the booster program, the ATAGI group, the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation, our experts in these field, have been meeting again. They're meting a lot. I had a meeting with them last night, quite late, just to finalise their latest statement on boosters, which was just going through the final touches, but it should be out later today. But I can summarise the three main points of that statement.
The first is there is no change. We're staying five months' duration between the second dose and the third dose or booster dose, so that was- as was changed last week. So it remains anyone who has had their second dose five or more months after. After that, they are now eligible for that booster dose.
The second point, and this is- there's been a lot of discussion about this in the last week since, particularly since that change from six months to five months. Because of this time of year, we have- ATAGI is urging anyone who is giving vaccines to be a little bit flexible about that five months, given that clinics may be closed, or people may be travelling. If you're a week or two before the five months, that's fine. But mostly, the five month is the time they want to stress.
And the third element of that is they- as I said before, myself, ATAGI, the AHPPC, all of the people you would expect to be looking at all the information are continuing on a daily basis to be looking at the information in relation to Omicron. And we'll use that evidence to guide the advice we give to governments about what to do in our current circumstances. And so, that will be in the ATAGI statement that will come out later today, but I'll pass over to General Frewen to talk about the vaccine program.
JOHN FREWEN:
Thanks, Professor, and good afternoon, everybody. First, I just want to note that yesterday we achieved the remarkable national milestone whereby we are 90 per cent fully vaccinated across the nation. Four of the states and territories are at the 90 per cent fully vaccinated mark and all of the other states and territories are above 80 per cent fully vaccinated. So I do want to thank all of the Australians who have come forward to get vaccinated. And I also particularly want to thank all of the GPs, pharmacists, health professionals and other support staff who have helped make this possible. It's a great achievement, and it's been no small endeavour for all of those involved.
Next, to the booster rollout. We've now had boosters administered to more than 1.1 million people in Australia. Yesterday was a record day in terms of booster shots. There were more than 135,000 booster shots delivered yesterday. And I do want to assure everybody that there is absolutely no concerns with supply, and we are working with all of the GPs and pharmacists and the states and territories to ensure that there is the appropriate distribution to make sure that we can meet demand as people become eligible. I do also want to encourage everybody who is eligible to get along as quickly as you can to get vaccinated. At the moment, there are still more than 4500 across the country that have bookings available in the next one to three days.
And in terms of keeping yourself safe, your friends and family safe and your community safe, the best Christmas gift there is is to get out and get your vaccination and your boosters. Thank you.
PAUL KELLY:
Yes, in the room first, thanks. Yeah.
QUESTION:
Professor Kelly, are you surprised that there is growing concern about Omicron and concern about creeping restrictions and state based decisions that could affect people's travel or Christmas holiday plans?
PAUL KELLY:
Look, I'm not surprised. As we know, uncertainty and- has been a key component of this pandemic from the beginning. On the positive side, we are continuing to look very carefully and closely at the information we have, and sharing that with the Australian public, and we will continue to do that. In terms of state based matters, obviously, we've talked many times before that the public health decision making is mainly with the states. But I can report that I had, again, a meeting with the AHPPC just before this- coming to this press conference, and there was a very strong sense of let's do this all together. I think, as I said at the beginning, this is time for national leadership and national consistency, and I'm really hopeful that that will be the case.
QUESTION:
Scott Morrison this morning said that health officials were still considering whether or not to bring forward that delay for boosters from five months to maybe three or four months. Is that definitely not going to happen now? And a second question to General Frewen, why are- there seems to be quite a number of pharmacies and GPs that seem to be running short on boosters. Why is that the case?
PAUL KELLY:
So just as- to answer the thing on boosters. So ATAGI meets all the time, pretty much, but officially once a week, and they'll continue to do so over the coming weeks and months. So the information they have in front of them at the moment, the decision today is to stay with the five months. So anyone who is five months or more since their second dose, regardless of what their primary course was, is now eligible and I really encourage them to come forward. More information is coming every day. They will continue to look at that information. But at this stage, that's the advice.
General?
JOHN FREWEN:
Sure. So, in terms of some GPs and pharmacies running low, it's less than a week since we got the change in the ATAGI advice from six months to five months. That meant that instead of 1.7 million people being due by the end of the year, there are now more than four million people who are due by the end of the year.
So we've been adjusting this week. We've had an extended ordering period open this week for deliveries just prior to Christmas. We've got an emergency ordering system in place as well, but we also now have a unit inside the task force that is looking at where stock is already out there that has been delivered. There is more than 4.6 million doses that are already sitting on shelves in GPs and pharmacies and in state clinics across the land. So in those cases where people have run short because of this new demand, we're working to get the supply to them as quickly as we can. But again, I'll just say, there is absolutely no concern with the amount of supply, and we'll make sure that everybody who's eligible for a booster will be able to get that opportunity as quickly as possible.
QUESTION:
So this should be a short term issue, it should be resolved by the week?
JOHN FREWEN:
Yeah. Oh, look, it's being resolved as we speak, and next week will be the largest amount of deliveries that we have done since the beginning of the program.
PAUL KELLY:
Might just go to the phone. I think Natasha Robinson from the Australian?
QUESTION:
Thank you very much. Just a question for General Frewen, please. Could you just outline exactly how many booster doses we have ordered in total, and the- when they're actually being delivered in those increments? And are you expecting any kind of crunch in kind of mid-January when the children become eligible for vaccination as well? Do you anticipate any issues with difficulty booking or supply or anything like that around that point?
JOHN FREWEN:
Yeah, so we don't have orders specifically for boosters. We're using the Pfizer and Moderna that's available at the moment. And again, the amounts that we have available far exceed any demand right now. We've also done forecasting work on exactly when boosters become due. I said there's 4.1 million by the end of December, there's another 7 million or so by the end of January, that ramps up to 11 million by the end of February, and then the numbers go up from there. There- we will be commencing the rollout for 5 to 11s in January as well, so that will start to see a little bit more pressure come onto the system, but the really big demand where large numbers of people become eligible for boosters really is into the February-March-April period, and that's when we will see peak demand. And we're working now with GPs and pharmacists, and the states and territories to make sure that we have got the full capacities in place then to meet that demand.
PAUL KELLY:
And Dana from The Sydney Morning Herald?
QUESTION:
Thanks, Professor Kelly. There have been reports of doses being tipped down the drain. You've said that people can now have some flexibility around that five-month schedule. Is that going to mean that GPs and pharmacists with extra doses can get them into arms, and will they still be covered by the indemnity if there are any side effects?
JOHN FREWEN:
So, I might answer the supply-related aspects there. Look, the wastage rates across the program are still remarkably good. We're running in around the four per cent wastage rate at the moment, which is well below the World Health Organisation average of about 10 to 15 per cent for programs.
As I've said, the supply is not the concern, so those stories of wastage, I think, are limited and not substantive in relation to people having the opportunity to get their boosters. The ATAGI advice does give flexibility around cases where there is some reason to come slightly forward of the five months, so that guidance has gone out to all of the providers and they're enacting that at the moment, but I'll pass to the Professor for the final part.
PAUL KELLY:
Yeah, thanks, General. So in terms of indemnity, they're covered. The boosters are available for anyone over the age of 18. At the moment, we're saying that five months is the best evidence of effectiveness, not only now but into the future. And so, the shorter the- there was always a trade-off there. The shorter the gap between the primary dose and the secondary dose, less the long-term effectiveness of the booster will be, but that's a matter for ATAGI to look at. So, I'm not saying to people, just run into the pharmacy because you're going on holidays. I'm saying if you are close to that five months, and you are unable to get the vaccine in the next coming weeks because of where you might be, then that gives flexibility to people that have otherwise been refused because they're a few days short. So, it's just a sensible option, I think, at this stage. One last question.
QUESTION:
Professor Kelly, what do you make of Brad Hazzard's comment that there could be 25,000 cases a month in New South Wales in the near future? Was that overblowing in your view?
PAUL KELLY:
So, I'm not privy to the information that Minister Hazzard used to come up with that figure. I think it is a fact we're going to see more cases, and we've seen what's happening overseas in terms of how fast those cases rise. So I believe there will be many more cases…
QUESTION:
Tens of thousands?
PAUL KELLY:
That's quite possible, but I'm not going to speculate on the numbers. What I can say is, that the most important thing is to look what that does for the health system. Particularly hospitalisations, particularly the intensive care, but also our primary care system. It's important that we do plot that, and we've made lots of plans about how to surge in that regard. So I think Minister Hazzard was being up front and honest with the people of New South Wales to expect more cases, and that's been seen again today. It will be seen again tomorrow and in the coming weeks, so I think that's important to know and to be ready for.
But I'll just go back to stress that people should go about their lives, work through their own plan for living with COVID. Wear a mask if you feel that that makes you feel more safe, particularly indoors, and all of the other things we've learnt over the last 18- almost two years about how to protect ourselves, our families and indeed the community. So, thanks very much everyone.
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