TV interview with Minister Butler, ABC Afternoon Briefing – 3 February 2026

PATRICIA KARVELAS, HOST: Elsewhere today, the Federal Government has released the model for its Thriving Kids program, the NDIS alternative for some children under eight. Thriving Kids is set to kick off in October of this year and Health Minister Butler joins me now. Welcome to the program.

MARK BUTLER, MINISTER FOR HEALTH AND AGEING, MINISTER FOR DISABILITY AND THE NDIS: Thank you, Patricia.

KARVELAS: We’ll just start with interest rates and then we’ll move along. Of course, I know it is not your portfolio but you’re a Senior Minister. Michelle Bullock, they’ve obviously increased interest rates today, she says our forecasts do see inflation above the target for the next year basically coming back in in early next year into that band. So, are we set for a year of pain, Minister?

BUTLER: We’ve have seen inflation to higher than we would have hope. The story behind that is, obviously, complex and I think the Reserve Bank has tried to step that out a bit over the course of today. Private demand growth was up substantially over the last quarter. We saw that in some areas that you described as one of so unwinding, effectively, the State Energy Rebate but holiday activity over the course of summer was quite big. And there were structural pressures in the economy, in particular housing, that I think that require ongoing attention, that’s something Jim Chalmers identified at the Economic Roundtable last year.

The important story, though, is that public demand growth is down substantially. It’s down by more than two-thirds against the previous year. And the Reserve Bank Board made the point that public demand growth, so the contribution the public or Government spending is making to growth in the economy, has been easing over recent quarters as was expected.

KARVELAS: Doesn't this demonstrate, though, that the May budget which is, of course, the next big moment for the Government, is going to need to be in a contractionary state? That you need to pull money out of the economy if we are still seeing this persistent inflation?

BUTLER: We need to contribute to the fight against inflation. That’s been the work I tell you, as a Member of the ERC, since we were first elected in 2022 when inflation was running at more six per cent we’ve tried to make sure we the need to provide support for households for their cost of living, while not contributing to the inflationary pressures in the economy and, where possible, actually putting downward pressure on prices. For example, cheaper medicines has done that among other things. That won't be any different to the budgets or the budget updates that we’ve done.

KARVELAS: But isn’t there more? And given we’ve seen this persistence in the inflation, doesn't show that there needs to be a bigger effort in the budget? And should people expect that there will be a withdrawal of money out of the economy, given the economy’s still so hot?

BUTLER: We’ve found savings in every budget and budget update. The MYEFO that was only published several weeks ago found $20 billion in more savings. It improved the bottom-line across every single year of the Forward Estimates. In every budget but also budget updates in the middle of the financial year we’ve been doing that and, of course, we’ll do that in the budget coming up as well.

The important point to make is the point the board made which is that public demand growth is down by more than two-thirds against the previous year. That’s starting to ease, making space for the private sector part of the economy. But that grew much faster than I think people expected.

KARVELAS: I want to go to the Thriving Kids policy that you’re trying to roll out. Essential to making this work is a workforce that can actually roll this out. Do we have the workforce to roll this out?

BUTLER: We have the workforce, I'm very confident about that. It’s been sucked into gravitational pull of the NDIS, not just from other parts of the traditional disability sector. But frankly, it's hard to find occupational therapists, speech pathologist in health, in veterans care and aged care because there's so much activity in the NDIS. I'm confident they are there, I’m confident they have the skills and the experience to provide support to children, including the children who’ll be covered by Thriving Kids. But there will be a change in the market or the model that reflects the model of care that was recommended to us by the Thriving Kids Advisory Group and adopted by all governments on Friday.

KARVELAS: Okay. But all state governments will, essentially, creating their own model. I mean, this is a wicked problem of our Federation. Is that the right way to go forward? Because you’re, basically, really dismantling part of the NDIS in creating this new scheme, but you are putting all these different state systems in place. Is at the right way forward? I mean, at a sort of macro level, is that the way we should be advancing this?

BUTLER: It does reflect the Federation, and we’re going to have a nationally consistent model of care. It rests on consistent pillars like early identification, good information and advice for people to find early. Parenting supports is really critical. We know that, at the end of the day, a child's parents are their most important teacher and support worker, if you like.

But then, critically, the provision of targeted supports which will be delivered by trained workers, often those allied health professionals we were talking about. And remember, there was a time before the NDIS. The NDIS has only been around a decade or so and before that state governments ran these programs. They ran them in playgroups, in child and family centres. Some still exist but need to be scaled up.

We heard a clear message from state governments that, while they wanted to adopt this Thriving Kids model across the country they wanted to take the responsibility of the provision of the target supports, just as they did before the creation of the NDIS. And we agreed with that.

KARVELAS: And so, ultimately, families today, I'm hearing a lot from families who are concerned that they may be shouldering more of the responsibility for their child's development alone. What do you say to them? Because there is a genuine fear in the community that as you roll this out, they may miss out, and they're going to need to press harder just to advocate for their children.

BUTLER: We're determined to make sure no family misses out. No family falls between two stools. And while we're ramping up this program before its full implementation at the beginning of 2028, people will still have access to the NDIS in the way they have over the last several years. But I'm convinced, and all of the advice we got through this advisory group process, through a parliamentary committee inquiry that was undertaken at the same time, reflects a consistent view across the country that this sort of program that is much easier to access, doesn't require a formal diagnosis, that can take years to get and cost thousands of dollars and is more heavily curated. But in terms of what the parents will be expected to do, we're all expected to parent. That's our job, and our job as Government is to provide -

KARVELAS: A parent is a parent, but obviously, parents who have children with high needs -

BUTLER: Yes, of course.

KARVELAS: - are in a wicked position trying to get some help for them. They had the NDIS as their security, and now they feel like they might fall between the cracks as you roll this out.

BUTLER: But what we heard was a very clear message that parents want the skills and the capability and the confidence to provide their own support to kids, obviously, in conjunction with trained health professionals. And I think if there was a problem with the NDIS model with this particular cohort, with more low to moderate support needs, was it relied entirely on the relationship between therapist and the child rather than recognising at the end of the day this is a level of support that needs to be provided to the whole family, which is the point, for example, that Frank Oberklaid made, who co-chaired this advisory group with me. Lots of support for parents, lots of connections with other parents who are going through the same issues, often in settings where families are living and learning and playing like play groups and child and family centres. Always with the recognition that sometimes they'll need that extra trained support often through an allied health worker, and that will be readily available too.

KARVELAS: The growth of the NDIS is really originally at the centre of some of these reforms. That growth continues to be an issue. You mentioned you're on the ERC, which is of course the sort of budget committee, for those who don't know, of the Cabinet. Are more NDIS changes on the cards as we go into the budget cycle?

BUTLER: More NDIS changes are on the cards.

KARVELAS: Beyond your announcements?

BUTLER: Yes. Yes.

KARVELAS: Is this something that you can foreshadow that you are working on in the context of the budget?

BUTLER: The development of Thriving Kids was not about saving costs. The development of Thriving Kids from my perspective, and I think the perspective of the advisory group and certainly long-time paediatric experts like Frank Oberklaid, was that the NDIS model was not the right model for those children and their parents. What we're doing is going back to basics really, the sorts of models that that existed before the NDIS, that were available in the sorts of settings where people went every single day, were free, were accessible, didn't require formal diagnosis. Alongside that, though, there has been a process to get NDIS growth down. When we came to Government, it was growing at 22 per cent, which was just unsustainable, not just from a budgetary perspective, but it was crowding out a whole lot of services in other parts of the health and social care economy. We need needed to get that growth rate down. All governments recognise that, and we're getting that down to eight per cent.

But I said at a Press Club speech five or six months ago when I announced Thriving Kids, we also needed to get that growth down to a lower, more sustainable rate. Eight per cent is not sustainable going forward.

KARVELAS: And so, what sort of percentage you looking at?

BUTLER: So I nominated 5 to 6 per cent back then, six months ago -

KARVELAS: That’s achievable still?

BUTLER: All governments agreed that on Friday at the National Cabinet meeting between the Prime Minister and the premiers, and there will now be a further process of reform to identify how we get to that and over what time frame. Obviously, that requires the work of the ERC, the budget committee it’s coming off.

KARVELAS: Yeah. So, I'm wondering, is that going to be a part of the budget? Like, will we see some of that revealed in the budget?

BUTLER: That's still to be determined, but you'll probably see at least some indication of that. But we've got work to do with states. They're partners in this scheme, but just still, more importantly, with the disability community itself. The NDIS is very much framed on the principle of nothing about us without us, and I intend to stay true to that principle while also recognising we need to get this scheme to a more sustainable footing so that in the long term, it continues to deliver the promise that was made to people living with disability and their families.

KARVELAS: Mark Butler, thank you for coming in.

BUTLER: Thanks, Patricia.