Modelling how COVID-19 could affect Australia

The Australian Government has released modelling of how COVID-19 could spread through the Australian population under different scenarios. This modelling helps governments take action to slow the spread of COVID-19 and prepare our health system.

Date published:
General public

The Australian Government has released modelling on the impact of COVID-19 in Australia.

If we continue with our strategy of isolation, quarantine and social isolation, we expect that our health system will cope with the projected peak in cases.

The Australian Government is boosting our intensive care unit (ICU) bed capacity to around 7,000 beds.

The modelling compares the peak daily ICU bed demand under 3 different scenarios:

  • uncontrolled spread – 35,000
  • isolation and quarantine – 17,000
  • isolation, quarantine and social isolation – below 5000

Australia will continue using the tools we have to control the disease:

The more effective these measures are, the slower the spread of the disease. This means care will be available when and where Australians need it.

For more, read the modelling papers from the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity.

Read the Prime Minister's update on coronavirus measures, including Theoretical modelling of how the health system can respond 

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