Medical Training Review Panel: sixteenth report

Medical Graduates

Page last updated: 09 April 2013

Current Data

In 2011, a total of 2,964 students graduated from Australian medical schools. Of these, 84.6% were domestic students.

Trends

Each year the number of domestic medical graduates has increased. The increase was 11.0% from 2010 to 2011 and there was an overall increase of 62.4% in domestic graduates across the last five years from 2007 to 2011 (Table 2.18).

From 2007 to 2011 the increase in the number of domestic medical graduates was greatest in Western Australia and Victoria, which increased by 114.3% and 74.0% respectively. In Queensland and New South Wales the number of domestic graduates also increased markedly by 69.6% and 61.5% respectively. In comparison, the other state and territory showed relatively small increases over the five year period (Table 2.16).

Table 2.16: Domestic medical school graduates in Australian universities, by state/territory, 2007–2011

(a) First students graduated from Deakin, Monash PG, Notre Dame Sydney and University of Western Sydney (UWS) in 2011. First students will graduate from Melbourne Doctor of Medicine program in 2014.
(b) First students graduated from ANU in 2007, Notre Dame Fremantle and Griffith in 2008, Bond in 2009 and Wollongong in 2010.

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

20072008200920102011Increase 2007 – 2011 Increase 2007 – 2011 (%)
New South Wales
Newcastle/UNE
67
77
85
104
70
3
4.5
Notre Dame Sydney(a)
..
..
..
..
103
..
..
Sydney
202
208
208
221
222
20
9.9
UNSW
186
177
163
166
187
1
0.5
UWS(a)
..
..
..
..
86
..
..
Wollongong
..
..
..
63
67
..
..
Total NSW
455
462
456
554
735
280
61.5
Victoria
Deakin(a)
..
..
..
..
109
..
..
Melbourne
186
199
198
212
234
48
25.8
Monash(a)
137
159
165
181
219
82
59.9
Total Vic
323
358
363
393
562
239
74.0
Queensland
Bond(b)
..
..
55
74
81
..
..
Griffith(b)
..
70
116
151
133
..
..
Queensland
284
238
279
332
290
6
2.1
James Cook
65
66
82
94
88
23
35.4
Total Qld
349
374
532
651
592
243
69.6
Western Australia
Notre Dame Fremantle(b)
..
75
80
86
98
..
..
UWA
126
142
182
207
172
46
36.5
Total WA
126
217
262
293
270
144
114.3
South Australia
Adelaide
85
98
83
94
97
12
14.1
Flinders
77
75
74
102
109
32
41.6
Total SA
162
173
157
196
206
44
27.2
Tasmania
Tasmania
58
64
73
89
67
9
15.5
Australian Capital Territory
ANU(b)
71
90
72
83
75
4
5.6
Total
1,544
1,738
1,915
2,259
2,507
963
62.4
Annual increase
194
177
344
248
Annual increase (%)
12.6
10.2
18.0
11.0

While the number of international students graduating from Australian medical schools increased each year between 2007 and 2010, in 2011 it decreased for the first time by a total 3.6%. Overall, however, the number of international graduates increased by 44.6% from 2007 to 2011 (Table 2.17).

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Table 2.17: International medical school graduates in Australian universities by state/territory, 2007–2011

(a) First students graduated from Deakin, Monash PG, Notre Dame campus and University of Western Sydney (UWS) in 2011. First students will graduate from Melbourne Doctor of Medicine program in 2014.
(b) First students graduated from ANU in 2007, Notre Dame Fremantle and Griffith in 2008, Bond in 2009 and Wollongong in 2010.

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

20072008200920102011Increase 2007 – 2011 Increase 2007 – 2011 (%)
New South Wales
Newcastle/UNE
15
18
21
21
20
5
33.3
Notre Dame Sydney(a)
..
..
..
..
0
..
..
Sydney
47
55
54
35
32
-15
-31.9
UNSW
23
39
36
55
36
13
56.5
UWS(a)
..
..
..
..
0
..
..
Wollongong
..
..
..
4
10
..
..
Total NSW
85
112
111
115
98
13
15.3
Victoria
Deakin(a)
..
..
..
..
0
..
..
Melbourne
85
88
97
90
89
4
4.7
Monash(a)
39
52
74
94
70
31
79.5
Total Vic
124
140
171
184
159
35
28.2
Queensland
Bond(b)
..
..
4
1
1
..
..
Griffith(b)
..
0
2
0
0
..
..
Queensland
20
51
67
77
98
78
390.0
James Cook
1
0
2
3
2
1
100.0
Total Qld
21
51
75
81
101
80
381.0
Western Australia
Notre Dame Fremantle(b)
..
0
0
0
0
..
..
UWA
4
10
15
25
27
23
575.0
Total WA
4
10
15
25
27
23
575.0
South Australia
Adelaide
41
48
38
40
21
-20
-48.8
Flinders
27
22
28
14
19
-8
-29.6
Total SA
68
70
66
54
40
-28
-41.2
Tasmania
Tasmania
13
14
21
11
28
15
115.4
Australian Capital Territory
ANU(b)
1
4
6
4
4
3
300.0
Total
316
401
465
474
457
141
44.6

The number of female medical graduates was first collected in 2007. Table 2.18 shows that in each year data has been reported, just over half of all medical graduates, both domestic and international, were females (55.0% for domestic and 51.6% for international in 2011).

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Table 2.18: Medical graduates: Domestic, international and proportions of females, 2007–2011

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

20072008200920102011Increase 2007 – 2011 (%)
Domestic
1,544
1,738
1,915
2,259
2,507
62.4
Proportion domestic (%)
83.0
81.3
80.5
82.7
84.6
1.9
Proportion female (%)
56.2
57.2
54.1
54.1
55.0
-2.1
International
316
401
465
474
457
44.6
Proportion international (%)
17.0
18.7
19.5
17.3
15.4
-9.2
Proportion females (%)
52.5
54.6
51.6
54.2
51.6
-1.6
Total
1,860
2,139
2,380
2,733
2,964
59.4
Annual increase (%)
5.0
11.3
14.8
8.5

Projected Numbers of Graduates

Table 2.19 shows the projected number of medical graduates up until 2017. These figures are based on current and planned enrolments as of 2012. Attrition has not been factored into these figures. It should be noted, that this would not greatly affect the overall figures, as attrition rates from medical courses are relatively low when compared to other courses, with a mean national attrition rate of just 1.2% calculated for 2011.

The number of domestic medical graduates is projected to rise from 2,807 in 2012 to 3,206 in 2015. Projections show that the number of graduates will then remain relatively constant, reaching 3,194 in 2017 (Table 2.19). This is an overall increase of 13.8% over the five years from 2012 to 2017.

The projected numbers of international students to graduate from Australian universities fluctuates considerably over the coming years (Table 2.20). Overall, however, they are expected to increase, rising by almost one quarter (24.9%) from 511 in 2012 to 638 in 2017.

Table 2.21 summaries the number of domestic and international students projected to graduate from Australian universities between 2012 and 2017.

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Table 2.19: Domestic medical students expected to graduate from Australian universities: Projected numbers(a) by state/territory, 2012–2017

UG – undergraduate
PG – postgraduate
MD – Doctor of Medicine

(a) No allowance has been made for student attrition.
(b) UWA MD program commences in 2014. First students will graduate in 2017.

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

201220132014201520162017
New South Wales
Newcastle/UNE
144
169
182
173
183
170
Notre Dame Sydney
108
105
111
115
113
113
Sydney
250
231
262
223
228
228
UNSW
204
198
235
237
226
214
UWS
91
114
106
110
103
100
Wollongong
67
74
78
75
75
75
Total NSW
864
891
974
933
928
900
Victoria
Deakin
127
136
127
130
130
130
Melbourne MD
0
0
304
292
295
295
Melbourne PG
73
79
2
2
0
0
Melbourne UG
159
171
0
2
0
0
Monash PG
70
74
67
77
75
75
Monash UG
218
232
249
248
253
253
Total Vic
647
692
749
751
753
753
Queensland
Bond
73
86
83
85
95
95
Griffith
150
154
156
154
155
155
Queensland
302
313
308
302
306
306
James Cook
94
141
142
172
175
166
Total Qld
619
694
689
713
731
722
Western Australia
Notre Dame Fremantle
104
97
95
106
104
104
UWA PG
62
61
60
62
60
0
UWA UG
100
122
142
148
144
0
UWA MD(b)
0
0
0
0
0
209
Total WA
266
280
297
316
308
313
South Australia
Adelaide
111
129
151
163
160
178
Flinders
113
120
126
147
142
142
Total SA
224
249
277
310
302
320
Tasmania
Tasmania
100
103
94
96
94
96
Australian Capital Territory
ANU
87
90
96
87
90
90
Total
2,807
2,999
3,176
3,206
3,206
3,194

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Table 2.20: International medical students expected to graduate from Australian universities: Projected numbers(a) by state/territory, 2012–2017

UG – undergraduate
PG – postgraduate
MD – Doctor of Medicine

(a) No allowance has been made for student attrition.
(b) Numbers exclude the UQ Ochsner (USA) Cohort, but have been included in the table for information.
(c) UWA MD program commences in 2014. First students will graduate in 2017.

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

201220132014201520162017
New South Wales
Newcastle/UNE
31
28
39
28
29
32
Notre Dame Sydney
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sydney
43
50
63
79
80
80
UNSW
47
59
55
64
75
70
UWS
9
13
25
15
23
20
Wollongong
11
8
7
10
10
10
Total NSW
141
158
189
196
217
212
Victoria
Deakin
1
6
1
9
10
10
Melbourne MD
0
0
24
38
40
40
Melbourne PG
10
14
0
0
0
0
Melbourne UG
73
75
0
1
0
0
Monash PG
6
6
22
10
20
20
Monash UG
60
57
51
52
63
63
Total Vic
150
158
98
110
133
133
Queensland
Bond
0
1
0
2
0
0
Griffith
0
0
0
0
12
20
Queensland(b)
125
139
104
142
143
127
UQ Ochsner (USA)
12
31
30
83
120
120
James Cook
4
4
21
32
18
26
Total Qld
129
144
125
176
173
173
Western Australia
Notre Dame WA
0
0
0
0
0
0
UWA PG
0
0
0
0
9
0
UWA UG
21
34
31
26
26
0
UWA MD(c)
0
0
0
0
0
30
Total WA
21
34
31
26
35
30
South Australia
Adelaide
25
29
36
16
16
30
Flinders
19
12
23
19
25
25
Total SA
44
41
59
35
41
55
Tasmania
Tasmania
17
14
25
19
27
25
Australian Capital Territory
ANU
9
8
8
9
10
10
Total
511
557
535
571
636
638

In total, 3,832 medical students are expected to graduate in 2017 (Table 2.21), 15.5% more than predicted for 2012. This is 29.3% higher than the actual number of medical students who graduated in 2011 (2,964) and 106.0% higher than the 1,860 medical students who graduated in 2007.

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Table 2.21: Medical students expected to graduate from Australian universities: Projected number of domestic and international students, 2012–2017

(a) Numbers exclude the UQ Ochsner (USA) Cohort.

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

201220132014201520162017Increase 2012 – 2017 (%)
Domestic
2,807
2,999
3,176
3,206
3,206
3,194
13.8
International(a)
511
557
535
571
636
638
24.9
Total
3,318
3,556
3,711
3,777
3,842
3,832
15.5
Increase from previous year (%)
7.2
4.4
1.8
1.7
-0.3

It should be noted, while the overall number of medical students graduating is projected to increase significantly each year, the rate of growth overall is projected to ease considerably from 2014.