Medical Training Review Panel: fifteenth report

Medical Graduates

Page last updated: 15 March 2012

Current Data

In 2010, 2,733 students in total graduated from Australian medical schools. Just over eighty percent (82.6%) or 2,259 were domestic students.

Trends

Each year the number of domestic medical graduates has increased. The increase was 18.0% from 2009 to 2010 and there was an overall increase of 69.2% in domestic graduates across the last five years from 2006 to 2010 (Table 2.16).

From 2006 to 2010 the increase in the number of domestic medical graduates was greatest in Western Australia and Queensland, which increased by 148.3% and 125.3% respectively. In New South Wales the number of domestic medical students also increased markedly by 48.1%. The other states showed relatively small increases over the five year period.

Table 2.16: Domestic medical school graduates in Australian universities by state/territory, 2006–2010

(a) First students graduated from ANU in 2007, Notre Dame (Fremantle) and Griffith in 2008, Bond in 2009 and Wollongong in 2010.
(b) First students will graduate from Deakin, Monash PG, Notre Dame Sydney campus and University of Western Sydney (UWS) in 2011. First students will graduate from Melbourne Doctor of Medicine program in 2014.

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

20062007200820092010Increase 2006-2010 Increase 2006-2010 (%)
New South Wales
Newcastle/UNE
61
67
77
85
104
43
70.5
Sydney
147
202
208
208
221
74
50.3
UNSW
166
186
177
163
166
0
0.0
Wollongong
..
..
..
..
63
..
..
Total NSW
374
455
462
456
554
180
48.1
Victoria
Monash
123
137
159
165
181
58
47.2
Melbourne
211
186
199
198
212
1
0.5
Total Vic
334
323
358
363
393
59
17.7
Queensland
Bond(a)
..
..
..
55
74
..
..
Griffith(a)
..
..
70
116
151
..
..
Queensland
215
284
238
279
332
117
54.4
James Cook
74
65
66
82
94
20
27.0
Total Qld
289
349
374
532
651
362
125.3
Western Australia
Notre Dame WA(a)
..
..
75
80
86
..
..
UWA
118
126
142
182
207
89
75.4
Total WA
118
126
217
262
293
175
148.3
South Australia
Adelaide
92
85
98
83
94
2
2.2
Flinders
66
77
75
74
102
36
54.5
Total SA
158
162
173
157
196
38
24.1
Tasmania
Tasmania
62
58
64
73
89
27
43.5
Australian Capital Territory
ANU(a)
..
71
90
72
83
..
..
Total
1,335
1,544
1,738
1,915
2,259
924
69.2
Annual increase
209
194
177
344
Annual increase (%)
15.7
12.6
10.2
18.0

The number of international students graduating from Australian medical schools also increased each year, rising just 1.9% between 2009 and 2010, but 59.1% overall from 2006 to 2010 (Table 2.17).

Table 2.17: International medical school graduates in Australian universities by state/territory, 2006–2010

(a) First students graduated from ANU in 2007, Notre Dame (Fremantle) and Griffith in 2008, Bond in 2009 and Wollongong in 2010.
(b) First students will graduate from Deakin, Monash PG, Notre Dame Sydney campus and University of Western Sydney (UWS) in 2011. First students will graduate from Melbourne Doctor of Medicine program in 2014.

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

20062007200820092010Increase 2006-2010 Increase 2006-2010 (%)
New South Wales
Newcastle/UNE
16
15
18
21
21
5
31.3
Sydney
33
47
55
54
35
2
6.1
UNSW
32
23
39
36
55
23
71.9
Wollongong
..
..
..
..
4
..
..
Total NSW
81
85
112
111
115
34
42.0
Victoria
Monash
52
39
52
74
94
42
80.8
Melbourne
74
85
88
97
90
16
21.6
Total Vic
126
124
140
171
184
58
46.0
Queensland
Bond(a)
..
..
..
4
1
..
..
Griffith(a)
..
..
0
2
0
..
..
Queensland
9
20
51
67
77
68
755.6
James Cook
1
1
0
2
3
2
200.0
Total Qld
10
21
51
75
81
71
710.0
Western Australia
Notre Dame WA(a)
..
..
0
0
0
..
..
UWA
7
4
10
15
25
18
257.1
Total WA
7
4
10
15
25
18
257.1
South Australia
Adelaide
36
41
48
38
40
4
11.1
Flinders
26
27
22
28
14
-12
-46.2
Total SA
62
68
70
66
54
-8
-12.9
Tasmania
Tasmania
12
13
14
21
11
-1
-8.3
Australian Capital Territory
ANU(a)
..
1
4
6
4
..
..
Total(b)
298
316
401
465
474
176
59.1

The number of female medical graduates was first collected in 2007. Table 2.18 shows that in each year data has been reported just over half of all medical graduates, both domestic and international, were female (54.1% for domestic and 54.2% for international in 2010).

Table 2.18: Medical graduates: Domestic, international and proportions of females, 2006–2010

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

20062007200820092010Increase 2006-2010 (%)
Domestic
1,335
1,544
1,738
1,915
2,259
69.2
Proportion domestic (%)
81.8
83.0
81.3
80.5
82.7
1.1
Proportion female (%)
na
56.2
57.2
54.1
54.1
..
International
298
316
401
465
474
59.1
Proportion international (%)
18.2
17.0
18.7
19.5
17.3
-5.0
Proportion females (%)
na
52.5
54.6
51.6
54.2
..
Total
1,633
1,860
2,139
2,380
2,733
67.4
Annual Increase (%)
13.9
15.0
11.3
14.8
..

Projected Numbers of Graduates

Table 2.23 shows the projected number of medical graduates up until 2016. These data are based on current and planned enrolments as of 2011. Attrition has not been factored into these figures. It should be noted, however, that this would not greatly affect the overall numbers, as attrition rates from medical courses are relatively low when compared to other courses, with a mean national attrition rate of just 1.4% calculated for 2008.

The number of domestic medical graduates is projected to rise from 2,549 in 2011 to 3,204 graduates in 2014. Projections show that the numbers of graduates will then remain relatively stable, reaching 3,254 domestic medical graduates in 2016 (Table 2.19). This is an overall increase of 27.7% over the five years from 2011 to 2016.

The projected numbers of international students that are to graduate from Australian universities fluctuate considerably over the coming years (Table 2.20). However, overall they are expected to increase markedly, rising by half (49.5%) again from 479 in 2011 to 716 international medical graduates in 2016.

Table 2.19: Domestic medical graduates expected to graduate from Australian universities: Projected numbers(a) by state/territory, 2011–2016

UG – undergraduate
PG – postgraduate
MD – Doctor of Medicine

(a) No allowance has been made for student attrition.

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

201120122013201420152016
New South Wales
Newcastle/UNE
70
156
172
187
179
170
Notre Dame Sydney
103
112
106
113
112
112
Sydney
228
247
230
261
270
270
UNSW
194
210
214
227
214
204
UWS
86
95
117
115
104
100
Wollongong
67
68
75
78
74
74
Total NSW
748
888
914
981
953
930
Victoria
Deakin
111
132
139
131
130
130
Melbourne MD
..
..
..
305
315
315
Melbourne PG
88
73
81
..
..
..
Melbourne UG
145
157
171
..
..
..
Monash PG
41
76
74
67
70
70
Monash UG
175
276
244
258
249
249
Total Vic
560
714
709
761
764
764
Queensland
Bond
81
73
86
83
85
85
Griffith
133
151
155
154
160
170
Queensland
298
310
315
305
300
300
James Cook
88
95
146
142
186
182
Total Qld
600
629
702
684
731
737
Western Australia
Notre Dame WA
99
109
98
102
104
104
UWA PG
56
61
62
61
65
60
UWA UG
136
117
115
145
146
146
Total WA
291
287
275
308
315
310
South Australia
Adelaide
95
122
136
137
171
175
Flinders
110
123
113
142
140
148
Total SA
205
245
249
279
311
323
Tasmania
Tasmania
68
106
99
99
100
100
Australian Capital Territory
ANU
77
91
92
92
90
90
Total
2,549
2,960
3,040
3,204
3,264
3,254
Table 2.20: International medical graduates expected to graduate from Australian universities: Projected numbers(a) by state/territory, 2011–2016

UG – undergraduate
PG – postgraduate
MD – Doctor of Medicine

(a) No allowance has been made for student attrition.

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

201120122013201420152016
New South Wales
Newcastle/UNE
20
36
30
29
19
24
Notre Dame Sydney
..
..
..
..
..
..
Sydney
35
45
52
66
70
70
UNSW
38
51
60
65
63
69
UWS
0
9
13
24
18
26
Wollongong
10
11
8
7
12
12
Total NSW
103
152
163
191
182
201
Victoria
Deakin
0
1
6
1
16
16
Melbourne MD
..
..
..
26
30
30
Melbourne PG
17
11
14
..
..
..
Melbourne UG
74
73
78
..
..
..
Monash PG
5
7
6
22
20
20
Monash UG
67
65
57
52
56
56
Total Vic
163
157
161
101
122
122
Queensland
Bond
1
0
1
0
2
0
Griffith
0
0
0
0
2
4
Queensland
110
142
152
142
235
275
James Cook
2
4
4
21
34
13
Total Qld
113
146
157
163
273
292
Western Australia
Notre Dame WA
..
..
..
..
..
..
UWA PG
..
..
..
..
..
5
UWA UG
27
21
36
26
20
25
Total WA
27
21
36
26
20
30
South Australia
Adelaide
22
31
29
21
17
15
Flinders
19
19
12
25
25
25
Total SA
41
50
41
46
42
40
Tasmania
Tasmania
28
17
23
29
26
25
Australian Capital Territory
ANU(b)
4
9
2
2
6
6
Total
479
552
583
558
671
716

In total, some 3,970 medical students are expected to graduate in 2016 (Table 2.21), one third (31.1%) more than is predicted for 2011. This is 45.3% higher than the actual number who graduated in 2010 (2,733) and 143.1% higher than the 1,633 medical students who graduated in 2006.

Table 2.21: Medical students to graduate from Australian universities: Projected numbers of domestic and international students, 2011–2016

Source: Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand Inc

201120122013201420152016
Domestic
2,549
2,960
3,040
3,204
3,264
3,254
International
479
552
583
558
671
716
Total
3,028
3,512
3,623
3,762
3,935
3,970
Increase from previous year (%)
16.0
3.2
3.8
4.6
0.9

It should be noted that, while the overall number of medical students graduating is projected to increase significantly each year, the rate of growth overall is projected to ease considerably from 2013.