The Western Australian model was used to calculate projections of the expected number of HIV (see Figure 62) and HCV (see Figure 63) cases in the future, according to scenarios whereby current syringe distribution levels are maintained or if there are increases or decreases in the provision of syringes through Western Australian NSPs.

Figure 62: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Western Australia according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 62: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Western Australia with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 62: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Western Australia with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 62: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Western Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 62: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Western Australia with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 62

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 62 consists of four graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Western Australia with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 2-10 in 2010 to 3-18 in 2011 before increasing dramatically to a range from 10 to above 100 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 2 in 2009 to 7 in 2011 before increasing to 28 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 1 in 2009 to 4 in 2011 before increasing to 19 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 3 in 2009 to 11 in 2011 before increasing dramatically to 53 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Western Australia with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations decrease gradually from a range of 0.3-2.5 in 2009 to 0.1-1.6 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases gradually from 0.9 in 2009 to 0.5 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 0.7 in 2009 to 0.3 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 1.5 in 2009 to 0.9 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Western Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase slightly from a range of 0.3-2.5 in 2009 to 0.3-3. 0 in 2011 and narrows to 0.2-2.4 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases slightly from 0.9 in 2009 to 1.1 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 0.8 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 0.7 in 2009 to 0.8 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 0.5 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 1.5 in 2009 to 1.9 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 1.2 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Western Australia with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 0.3-2.5 in 2009 to 0-1.9 in 2011 and decrease gradually to 0-1.2 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 0.9 in 2009 to 0.7 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 0.5 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 0.7 in 2009 to 0.5 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 0.3 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 1.5 in 2009 to 1.1 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 0.7 by 2020.Top of page

Figure 63: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Western Australia according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 63: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Western Australia with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 63: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Western Australia with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 63: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Western Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 63: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Western Australia with NSP coverage increased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 63: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Western Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 10%Top of pageText equivalent below for Figure 63: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Western Australia with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 63

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 63 consists of six graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Western Australia with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 600-1,100 in 2009 to 3,100-4,700 in 2011 and decrease gradually to 1,500-2,300 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,000 in 2009 to 4,300 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 2,000 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 900 in 2009 to 4,000 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 1,900 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,100 in 2009 to 4,400 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 2,100 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Western Australia with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations increase increases gradually from a range of 600-1,100 in 2009 to 650-1,400 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases gradually from 900 in 2009 to 1,200 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 850 in 2009 to 1,150 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 950 in 2009 to 1,300 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Western Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 600-1,100 in 2009 to 750-1,500 in 2011 and increases slightly to 750-1550 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 850 in 2009 to 1,350 in 2011 and increases slightly to 1,400 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 800 in 2009 to 1,250 in 2011 and increases slightly to 1,350 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 950 in 2009 to 1,400 in 2011 and increases slightly to 1,450 by 2020. Top of page

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Western Australia with NSP coverage increased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 600-1,100 in 2009 to 550-1,150 in 2011 before increasing gradually to 600-1,300 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations remains constant at 850 from 2009 to 2011 before increasing gradually to 1,200 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 800 from 2009 to 2011 before increasing gradually to 1,100 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 950 from 2009 to 2011 before increasing gradually to 1,300 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Western Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 600-1,100 in 2009 to 700-1,250 in 2011 and increase slightly to 700-1,450 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 850 in 2009 to 1,100 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,250 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 800 in 2009 to 1,300 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,200 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 950 in 2009 to 1,200 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,300 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Western Australia with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease from a range of 600-1,100 in 2009 to 450-950 in 2011 and increase slightly to 550-1,200 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases from 900 in 2009 to 800 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,000 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases from 850 in 2009 to 750 in 2011 and increases gradually to 950 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases from 950 in 2009 to 850 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,100 by 2020.