The epidemiological transmission model for HIV and HCV was applied to Victoria. The model was used to evaluate current NSPs versus no program and to project likely epidemiological impacts of potential changes to the program. The model estimated the expected number of HIV and HCV cases in Victoria with and without NSP distribution of sterile injecting equipment (Figure 55). The estimated number of infections averted is presented in Figure 56. An estimated 5,516 (3,794-7,819, IQR) HIV infections and 18,878 (17,426-21,049, IQR) HCV infections were averted due to NSPs in Victoria.

Figure 55: Estimated HIV and HCV incidence in Victoria with and without NSPs

Text equivalent below for Figure 55: Estimated HIV incidence in Victoria with NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 55: Estimated HIV incidence in Victoria without NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 55: Estimated HCV incidence in Victoria with NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 55: Estimated HCV incidence in Victoria without NSPs

Text version of Figure 55

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 55 consists of four graphs:
  • Estimated HIV incidence in Victoria with NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations decrease gradually from a range of 9-16 in 1999 to 3-5 in 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases gradually from 13 in 1999 to 4 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 12 in 1999 to 3 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 14 in 1999 to 4.5 in 2009.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HIV in Victoria is:
      • 1999 - 8
      • 2000 - 11
      • 2001 - 10
      • 2002 - 5
      • 2003 - 9
      • 2004 - 10
      • 2005 - 9
      • 2006 - 8
      • 2007 - 7

  • Estimated HIV incidence in Victoria without NSPs

    • One model simulation rises dramatically from 200 in 1998 to 1,000 in 1999. The rest of the 100 model simulations rise dramatically from 20-130 in 1999 to a range of 5-1,000 in 2003. By 2009, simulations range from 10 to above 1,000.

    • The median of the model simulations rises dramatically from 50 in 1999 to 930 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations rises dramatically from 40 in 1999 to 640 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations rises dramatically from 90 in 1999 passing 1,000 between 205 and 2006.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HIV in Victoria is consistently below 20 for all years between 1999 and 2007.

  • Estimated HCV incidence in Victoria with NSPs

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    • The 100 model simulations decrease gradually from a range of 3,900-4,400 in 1999 to 1,600-1,900 in 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases gradually from 4,200 in 1999 to 1,800 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 4,000 in 1999 to 1,700 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 4,300 in1999 to 1,850 in 2009.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HCV in Victoria is:
      • 1999 - 3,800
      • 2000 - 3,900
      • 2001 - 3,000
      • 2002 - 2,500
      • 2003 - 2,400
      • 2004 - 2,500
      • 2005 - 2,600

  • Estimated HCV incidence in Victoria without NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 500-9,800 in 1998 to 1,800-20,000 in 1999, decrease sharply to 3,000-8,100 in 2001 and decrease gradually to 900-6,800 in 2007. The model simulations then increase gradually to 900-9,200 by 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 3,300 in 1998 to 10,800 in 1999, decreases sharply to 3,200 in 2002. The median then decreases gradually to 1,500 in 2008 before increasing slightly to 2,100 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 3,100 in 1998 to 9,900 in 1999, decreases sharply to 2,500 in 2002 and decreases gradually to 1,200 in 2008. The lower quartile then increases slightly to 2,000 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 4,200 in 1998 to 11,800 in 1999, decreases sharply to 3,100 in 2002 and decreases gradually to 2,000 in 2008. The upper quartile then increases slightly to 2,500 in 2009.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HCV in Victoria is:
      • 1999 - 3,800
      • 2000 - 3,900
      • 2001 - 3,000
      • 2002 - 2,500
      • 2003 - 2,400
      • 2004 - 2,500
      • 2005 - 2,600Top of page

Figure 56: Estimated cumulative number of HIV and HCV cases averted in Victoria due to NSPs

Text equivalent below for Figure 56: Estimated cumulative number of HIV cases averted in Victoria due to NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 56: Estimated cumulative number of HCV cases averted in Victoria due to NSPs

Text version of Figure 56

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 56 consists of two graphs:
  • Expected cumulative number of HIV cases averted in Victoria due to NSPs

    • With NSPs (current coverage) the cumulative number of HIV cases in Victoria increases gradually from below 50 in 1999 to 100 in 2009.

    • Without NSPs the cumulative number of HIV cases in Victoria increases exponentially from below 100 in 1999 to 1,750 in 2004 and rises above 2,000 by 2005.

  • Expected cumulative number of HCV cases averted in Victoria due to NSPs

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    • With NSPs (current coverage) the cumulative number of HCV cases in Victoria increases gradually from 3,000 in 1999 to 21,000 in 2009.

    • Without NSPs the cumulative number of HCV cases in Victoria increases sharply from 10,000 in 1999 to 24,000 in 2001 and rises gradually to 40,000 by 2009.