The Victorian model was used to calculate projections of the expected number of HIV (see Figure 57) and HCV (see Figure 58) cases in the future, according to scenarios whereby current syringe distribution levels are maintained or if there are increases or decreases in the provision of syringes through Victorian NSPs.

Figure 57: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Victoria according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 57: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Victoria with no NSPSText equivalent below for Figure 57: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Victoria with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 57: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Victoria with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 57: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Victoria with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 57

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 57 consists of six graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Victoria with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase dramatically from a range of 2-8 in 2009 to 2-60 in 2011. By 2020, simulations range from 2 to above 100, with the majority of simulations above 60.

    • The median of the model simulations increase sharply from 4 in 2009 to 24 in 2011 before increasing dramatically to 92 by 2018 and above 100 between 2018 and 2019.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increase sharply from 3 in 2009 to 18 in 2011 before increasing dramatically to 98 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increase sharply from 5 in 2009 to 35 in 2011 before increasing dramatically to 91 by 2016 and above 100 between 2016 and 2017.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Victoria with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations decrease gradually from a range of 0-7 in 2009 to 0-4 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases gradually from 3.5 in 2009 to 2 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 2.5 in 2009 to 1.5 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 4.5 in 2009 to 2.5 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Victoria with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase slightly from a range of 0-8 in 2009 to 0-9.5 in 2011 and narrows to 0-6 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases slightly from 3.5 in 2009 to 2.5 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 2.5 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 2.5 in 2009 to 3 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 2 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 4.5 in 2009 to 5.5 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 3.5 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Victoria with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 0-8 in 2009 to 0-5.5 in 2011 and decrease gradually to 0-3 by 2020. One model simulation appears at 30 between 2014 and 2015 and decreases gradually to 21 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 3.5 in 2009 to 3 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 2 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 2.5 in 2009 to 2 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 1.5 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 4.5 in 2009 to 3.5 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 2 by 2020.Top of page

Figure 58: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Victoria according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 58: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Victoria with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 58: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Victoria with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 58: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Victoria with decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 58: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Victoria with increased by 10%

Text version of Figure 58

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 58 consists of six graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Victoria with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 0-4,800 in 2009 to 200-13,500 in 2010 and decrease gradually to 800-7,800 in 2014. The model simulations then increase slightly to 900-8,700 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,200 in 2009 to 5,900 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 3,500 in 2016. The median then remains constant to 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,000 in 2009 to 5,300 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 3,000 in 2016. The lower quartile then remains constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,700 in 2009 to 6,200 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 3,900 in 2016. The upper quartile then remains constant to 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Victoria with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations increase very slightly from a range of 0-4,200 in 2009 to 0-5,600 in 2012 and remain constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases very slightly from 1,200 in 2009 to 1,700 in 2012 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 1,000 in 2009 to 1,700 in 2012 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 1,700 in 2009 to 1,8500 in 2012 and remains constnat to 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Victoria with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 0-4,200 in 2009 to 0-6,200 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 0-6,000 to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 1,200 in 2009 to 1,900 in 2011 and increases slightly to 2,100 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,000 in 2009 to 1,900 in 2011 and increases slightly to 2,000 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,700 in 2009 to 2,100 in 2011 and increases slightly to 2,300 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Victoria with NSP coverage increased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase slightly from a range of 0-4,200 in 2009 to 0-5,600 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases slightly from 1,200 in 2009 to 1,800 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,000 in 2009 to 1,700 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,700 in 2009 to 2,000 in 2020.

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  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Victoria with NSP coverage decreased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 0-4,200 in 2009 to 0-5,900 in 2011 and narrows slightly to 0- 5,700 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 1,200 in 2009 to 1,700 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,900 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,000 in 2009 to 1,300 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,800 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,700 in 2009 to 2,000 in 2011 and increases gradually to 2,100 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Victoria with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations remain constant at a range of 0-4,200 from 2009 to 2011 and then increase gradually to 0-5,200 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations remains constant at 1,200 from 2009 to 2011 and then increases gradually to 1,800 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 1,000 from 2009 to 2011 and then increases gradually to 1,700 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 1,700 from 2009 to 2011 and then increases gradually to 2,000 by 2020.