The Tasmanian model was used to calculate projections of the expected number of HIV (see Figure 52) and HCV (see Figure 53) cases in the future, according to scenarios whereby current syringe distribution levels are maintained or if there are increases or decreases in the provision of syringes through Tasmanian NSPs.

Figure 52: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Tasmania according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 52: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Tasmania with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 52: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Tasmania with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 52: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Tasmania with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 52: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Tasmania with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 52

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 52 consists of four graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Tasmania with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 0-0.005 in 2009 to 0-0.025 in 2011. By 2020, one model simulation has reached 0.047 and the rest range between 0 and 0.015.

    • The median of the model simulations ramains at 0.0005 from 2009 to 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Tasmania with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations remain constant from 2009-2020 with a range of 0-0.005.

    • The median of the model simulations remains constant at 0.0005 from 2009-2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Tasmania with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase slightly from a range of 0-0.004 in 2009 to 0-0.005 in 2010 and remain constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations remains at 0.0005 from 2009 to 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Tasmania with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 0-0.005 in 2009 to 0-0.004 in 2010 and remain constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations remains at 0.0005 from 2009 to 2020.

Figure 53: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Tasmania according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 53: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Tasmania with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 53: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Tasmania with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 53: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Tasmania with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Top of pageText equivalent below for Figure 53: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Tasmania with NSP coverage increased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 53: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Tasmania with NSP coverage decreased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 53: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Tasmania with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 53

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 53 consists of six graphs
  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Tasmania with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 110-130 in 2009 to 570-700 in 2011 and decrease gradually to 220-310 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 130 in 2009 to 630 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 265 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 120 in 2009 to 600 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 250 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 140 in 2009 to 650 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 280 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Tasmania with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations increase very slightly from a range of 110-130 in 2009 to 110-135 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases very slightly from 115 in 2009 to 120 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 112 in 2009 to 117 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 120 in 2009 to 125 in 2020. Top of page

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Tasmania with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 110-130 in 2009 to 140-170 in 2011 and remain constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 115 in 2009 to 155 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 112 in 2009 to 150 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 120 in 2009 to 160 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Tasmania with NSP coverage increased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease from a range of 110-130 in 2009 to 98-120 in 2011 and increase very slightly to 97-122 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases from 115 in 2009 to 107 in 2011 and increases very slightly to 112 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases from 112 in 2009 to 102 in 2011 and increases very slightly to 105 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases from 120 in 2009 to 112 in 2011 and increases very slightly to 115 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Tasmania with NSP coverage decreased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 110-130 in 2009 to 118-142 in 2011 and increase very slightly to 120-145 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 115 in 2009 to 132 in 2011 and increases very slightly to 134 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 112 in 2009 to 125 in 2011 and increases very slightly to 126 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 120 in 2009 to 135 in 2011 and increases very slightly to 137 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Tasmania with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease from a range of 110-130 in 2009 to 85-105 in 2011 and widens to 82-110 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases from 115 in 2009 to 92 in 2011 and increases gradually to 95 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases from 112 in 2009 to 90 in 2011 and increases gradually to 92 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases from 120 in 2009 to 98 in 2011 and increases gradually to 100 by 2020.