The mathematical epidemiological transmission model for HIV and HCV was applied to IDUs and NSPs specifically in South Australia. The model was used to evaluate current NSPs versus no program and to project likely epidemiological impacts of potential changes to the program. The model estimated the expected number of HIV and HCV cases in South Australia with and without NSP distribution of sterile injecting equipment (Figure 45). The estimated number of infections averted is presented in Figure 46. An estimated 122 (89-175, IQR) HIV infections and 8,987 (8,722-9,463, IQR) HCV infections were averted due to NSPs in South Australia.

Figure 45: Estimated HIV and HCV incidence in South Australia with and without NSPs

Text equivalent below for Figure 45: Estimated HIV incidence in South Australia with NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 45: Estimated HIV incidence in South Australia without NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 45: Estimated HCV ncidence in South Australia with NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 45: Estimated HCV incidence in South Australia without NSPs

Text version of Figure 45

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 45 consists of four graphs:
  • Estimated HIV incidence in South Australia with NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations decrease gradually from a range of 3-5.8 in 1999 to 2-4.2 in 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases gradually from 5 in 1999 to 3 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 3.5 in 1999 to 2.6 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 5 in 1999 to 3.5 in 2009.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HIV in South Australia is:
      • 1999 - 3
      • 2000 - 0
      • 2001 - 3
      • 2002 - 1
      • 2003 - 3
      • 2004 - 7
      • 2005 -3
      • 2006 - 5
      • 2007 - 4

  • Estimated HIV incidence in South Australia without NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations rise dramatically from 1-14 in 1999 to a range of 2-30 in 2000. By 2009, simulations range from 7 to above 30.

    • The median of the model simulations rises dramatically from almost 2 in 1999 to 26 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations rises dramatically from 1.5 in 1999 to 17 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations rises dramatically from 3 in 1999 passing 30 in 2008.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HIV in South Australia is:
      • 1999 - 3
      • 2000 - 0
      • 2001 - 3
      • 2002 - 1
      • 2003 - 3
      • 2004 - 7
      • 2005 -3
      • 2006 - 5
      • 2007 - 4

  • Estimated HCV incidence in South Australia with NSPs

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    • The 100 model simulations decrease gradually from a range of 750-850 in 1999 to 300-400 in 2008 and remains constant to 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases gradually from 800 in 1999 to 350 in 2008 and remains constant to 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 760 in 1999 to 320 in 2008 and remains constant to 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 820 in1999 to 380 in 2008 and remains constant to 2009.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HCV in South Australia is:
      • 1999 - 850
      • 2000 - 850
      • 2001 - 700
      • 2002 - 650
      • 2003 - 650
      • 2004 - 650
      • 2005 - 600

  • Estimated HCV incidence in South Australia without NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 750-1,500 in 1998 to 2,300-4,200 in 1999, increase sharply to 3,400-5,100 in 2000 and decrease rapidly to 300-750 in 2008. The model simulations then increase slighty to 400-800 by 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,200 in 1998 to 4,000 in 1999, increases sharply to 4,600 in 2000 and decreases rapidly to 400 in 2008. The median then increases slightly to 600 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,100 in 1998 to 3,800 in 1999, increases sharply to 4,500 in 2000 and decreases rapidly to 350 in 2008. The lower quartile then increases slightly to 550 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 1.400 in 1998 to 4,100 in 1999, increases sharply to 5,800 in 2000 and decreases rapidly to 550 in 2008. The upper quartile then increases slightly to 700 in 2009.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HCV in South Australia is:
      • 1999 - 850
      • 2000 - 850
      • 2001 - 700
      • 2002 - 650
      • 2003 - 650
      • 2004 - 650Top of page
      • 2005 - 600

Figure 46: Estimated cumulative number of HIV and HCV cases averted in South Australia due to NSPs

Text equivalent below for Figure 46: Estimated cumulative number of HIV cases averted in South Australia due to NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 46: Estimated cumulative number of HCV cases averted in South Australia due to NSPs

Text version of Figure 46

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 46 consists of two graphs:
  • Expected cumulative number of HIV cases averted in South Australia due to NSPs

    • With NSPs (current coverage) the cumulative number of HIV cases in South Australia remains consistently below 10 for all years between 1999 and 2009.

    • Without NSPs the cumulative number of HIV cases in South Australia increases exponentially from below 10 in 1999 to 124 in 2009.

  • Expected cumulative number of HCV cases averted in South Australia due to NSPs

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    • With NSPs (current coverage) the cumulative number of HCV cases in South Australia increases gradually from 1,000 in 1999 to 8,700 in 2009.

    • Without NSPs the cumulative number of HCV cases in South Australia increases sharply from 4,000 in 1999 to 11,500 in 2001 and rises gradually to 17,800 by 2009.