The South Australian model was used to calculate projections of the expected number of HIV (see Figure 47) and HCV (see Figure 48) cases in the future, according to scenarios whereby current syringe distribution levels are maintained or if there are increases or decreases in the provision of syringes through South Australian NSPs.

Figure 47: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in South Australia according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 47: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in South Australia with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 47: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in South Australia with no NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 47: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in South Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 47: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in South Australia with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 47

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 47 consists of four graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in South Australia with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase exponentially from a range of 0.5-10 in 2010 to 1-20 in 2011. By 2020, simulations range from 4.5 to above 20.

    • The median of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0.25 in 2009 to 15.5 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0.2 in 2009 to 11 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0.5 in 2009 to 20 in 2019.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in South Australia with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations remain constant from 2009-2010 with a range of 0.02-2.5 before decreasing gradually to 0-2.2 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations remains constant at 0.03 from 2009-2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 0.02 from 2009-2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 0.05 from 2009-2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in South Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 0.02-2.8 in 2009 to 0.02-3.35 in 2011 and remain constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 0.03 in 2009 to 0.035 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 0.02 in 2009 to 0.03 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 0.05 in 2009 to 0.07 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in South Australia with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 0.02-2.5 in 2009 to 0.02-2.3 in 2011 and decrease gradually to 0.02-2 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 0.03 in 2009 to 0.02 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 0.02 in 2009 to 0.01 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 0.05 in 2009 to 0.04 in 2020.
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Figure 48: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in South Australia according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 48: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in South Australia with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 48: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in South Australia with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 48: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in South Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 48: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in South Australia with NSP coverage increased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 48: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in South Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 10%Top of pageText equivalent below for Figure 48: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in South Australia with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 48

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 48 consists of six graphs
  • Projected annual HCV incidence in South Australia with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 300-650 in 2009 to 1,700-2,700 in 2011 and decrease gradually to 800-1,300 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 500 in 2009 to 2,400 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 1,200 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 400 in 2009 to 2,300 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 1,100 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 600 in 2009 to 2,500 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 1,250 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in South Australia with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations increase very slightly from a range of 300-650 in 2009 to 390-800 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases very slightly from 500 in 2009 to 700 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 480 in 2009 to 600 in 2020. Top of page

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 520 in 2009 to 760 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in South Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 300-650 in 2009 to 400-800 in 2011 and increase gradually 450-920 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 500 in 2009 to 750 in 2011 and increases gradually to 810 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 480 in 2009 to 700 in 2011 and increases gradually to 780 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 520 in 2009 to 780 in 2011 and increases gradually to 830 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in South Australia with NSP coverage increased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations remain constant at a range of 300-650 from 2009 to 2011 and increase gradually to 300-780 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations remains constant at 500 from 2009 to 2011 and increases gradually to 620 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 480 from 2009 to 2011 and increases gradually to 590 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 520 from 2009 to 2011 and increases gradually to 680 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in South Australia with NSP coverage decreased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 300-650 in 2009 to 360-680 in 2011 and increase gradually to 400-810 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 500 in 2009 to 600 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,900 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 480 in 2009 to 580 in 2011 and increases gradually to 640 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 520 in 2009 to 620 in 2011 and increases gradually to 780 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in South Australia with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 300-650 in 2009 to 250-500 in 2011 and increase gradually to 280-700 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 500 in 2009 to 460 in 2011 and increases gradually to 600 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 480 in 2009 to 410 in 2011 and increases gradually to 650 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 520 in 2009 to 500 in 2011 and increases gradually to 610 by 2020.