The mathematical epidemiological transmission model for HIV and HCV was applied to IDUs and NSPs specifically in Queensland. The model was used to evaluate current NSPs versus no program and to project likely epidemiological impacts of potential changes to the program. The model estimated the expected number of HIV and HCV cases in Queensland with and without NSP distribution of sterile injecting equipment (Figure 40). The estimated number of infections averted is presented in Figure 41. An estimated 7,296 (5,179-9,324, IQR) HIV infections and 21,285 (20,566-22,215, IQR) HCV infections were averted due to NSPs in Queensland.

Figure 40: Estimated HIV and HCV incidence in Queensland with and without NSPs

Text equivalent below for Figure 40: Estimated HIV incidence in Queensland with NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 40: Estimated HIV incidence in Queensland without NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 40: Estimated HCV incidence in Queensland with NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 40: Estimated HCV incidence in Queensland without NSPs

Text version of Figure 40

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 40 consists of four graphs:
  • Estimated HIV incidence in Queensland with NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations decrease gradually from a range of 5-7.8 in 1999 to 2.8-5 in 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases gradually from 6.2 in 1999 to 3.8 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 5.6 in 1999 to 3.2 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 7 in 1999 to 4.1 in 2009.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HIV in Queensland is:
      • 1999 - 10
      • 2000 - 4
      • 2001 - 6
      • 2002 - 3
      • 2003 - 3
      • 2004 - 3
      • 2005 - 7
      • 2006 - 4
      • 2007 - 4

  • Estimated HIV incidence in Queensland without NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations rise dramatically from almost 0 in 1999 to a range of 220-2,000 in 2006. By 2009, simulations range from 450 to above 2,000.

    • The median of the model simulations rises dramatically from almost 0 in 1999 to 2,000 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations rises dramatically from almost 0 in 1999 to 1,400 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations rises dramatically from almost 0 in 1999 passing 2,000 in 2008.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HIV in Queensland is consistently below 20 for all years between 1999 and 2007.

  • Estimated HCV incidence in Queensland with NSPs

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    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 1,750-1,950 in 1999 to1,750-1,900 in 2000 before decreasing gradually to 1,050-1,200 in 2008. The range increases slightly to 1,100-1,250 by 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 1,800 in 1999 to 1,775 in 2000, decreases gradually to 1,100 in 2008 and increases slightly to 1,125 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 1,775 in 1999 to 1,750 in 2000, decreases gradually to 1,100 in 2008 and increases slightly to 1,120 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 1,900 in1999 to 1,950 in 2000, decreases gradually to 1,200 in 2008 and increases slightly to 1,220 in 2009.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HCV in Queensland is:
      • 1999 - 2,000
      • 2000 - 2,050
      • 2001 - 1,680
      • 2002 - 1,400
      • 2003 - 1,375
      • 2004 - 1,300
      • 2005 - 1,300

  • Estimated HCV incidence in Queensland without NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 1,500-3,000 in 1998 to 5,200-8,800 in 1999, increase sharply to 7,400-10,000 in 2000 and decrease rapidly to 1,500-2,400 in 2008. The model simulations then increase slighty to 1,800-3,600 by 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 2,300 in 1998 to 8,000 in 1999, increases sharply to 8,700 in 2000 and decreases rapidly to 2,000 in 2008. The median then increases slightly to 2,300 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 2,200 in 1998 to 7,800 in 1999, increases sharply to 8,200 in 2000 and decreases rapidly to 1,800 in 2008. The lower quartile then increases slightly to 2,100 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 2,800 in 1998 to 8,400 in 1999, increases sharply to 9,000 in 2000 and decreases rapidly to 2,100 in 2008. The upper quartile then increases slightly to 2,400 in 2009.

    • The notification data for annual incidence of HCV in Queensland is:
      • 1999 - 2,000
      • 2000 - 2,050
      • 2001 - 1,680
      • 2002 - 1,400
      • 2003 - 1,375
      • 2004 - 1,300
      • 2005 - 1,300Top of page

Figure 41: Estimated cumulative number of HIV and HCV cases averted in Queensland due to NSPs

Text equivalent below for Figure 41: Estimated cumulative number of HIV cases averted in Queensland due to NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 41: Estimated cumulative number of HCV cases averted in Queensland due to NSPs

Text version of Figure 41

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 41 consists of two graphs:
  • Expected cumulative number of HIV cases averted in Queensland due to NSPs

    • With NSPs (current coverage) the cumulative number of HIV cases in Queensland remains consistently below 50 for all years between 1999 and 2009.

    • Without NSPs the cumulative number of HIV cases in Queensland increases exponentially from below 50 in 1999 to 1,600 in 2005 and rises above 2,000 by 2006.

  • Expected cumulative number of HCV cases averted in Queensland due to NSPs

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    • With NSPs (current coverage) the cumulative number of HCV cases in Queensland increases gradually from 2,000 in 1999 to 20,000 in 2009.

    • Without NSPs the cumulative number of HCV cases in Queensland increases sharply from 8,000 in 1999 to 37,000 in 2007 and rises above 40,000 by 2009.