The Queensland model was used to calculate projections of the expected number of HIV (see Figure 42) and HCV (see Figure 43) cases in the future according to scenarios whereby current syringe distribution levels are maintained or if there are increases or decreases in the provision of syringes through Queensland NSPs.

Figure 42: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Queensland according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 42: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Queensland with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 42: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Queensland with the current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 42: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Queensland with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 42: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Queensland with NSP coverage increased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 42: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Queensland with NSP coverage decreased by 10%Top of pageText equivalent below for Figure 42: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in Queensland with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 42

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 42 consists of six graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Queensland with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to a range of 180-1,100 in 2018. By 2020, simulations range from 220 to above 2,000.

    • The median of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to 950 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to 620 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to 1,200 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Queensland with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations remain constant from 2009-2010 with a range of 2.9-4.9 before decreasing gradually to 1.7-3.8 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations remains constant at 3.8 from 2009-2010 before decreasing gradually to 2.5 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 3.2 from 2009-2010 before decreasing gradually to 2.2 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 4.1 from 2009-2010 before decreasing gradually to 2.9 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Queensland with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 2.9-4.9 in 2009 to 3.5-6.3 in 2011 and narrows slightly to 3.2-5.9 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 3.8 in 2009 to 4.7 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 4.2 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 3.2 in 2009 to 4.1 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 3.8 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 4.1 in 2009 to 5.2 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 5.8 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Queensland with NSP coverage increased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 2.9-4.9 in 2009 to 2.4-4.3 in 2011 and decrease gradually to 1.4-3.2 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 3.8 in 2009 to 3.1 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 2 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 3.2 in 2009 to 2.7 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 1.9 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 4.1 in 2009 to 3.5 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 2.3 by 2020. Top of page

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Queensland with NSP coverage decreased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase slightly from a range of 2.9-4.9 in 2009 to 2.9-5.1 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 2.1-4.4 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases slightly from 3.8 in 2009 to 4 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 3 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 3.2 in 2009 to 3.3 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 2.7 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 4.1 in 2009 to 4.2 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 3.3 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Queensland with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease sharply from a range of 2.9-4.9 in 2009 to 2-3.7 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 1.1-2.6 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases sharply from 3.8 in 2009 to 2.8 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 1.7 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases sharply from 3.2 in 2009 to 2.4 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 1.4 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases sharply from 4.1 in 2009 to 3 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 2 by 2020.

Figure 43: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Queensland according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 43: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Queensland with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 43: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Queensland with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 43: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Queensland with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 43: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Queensland with NSP coverage increased by 10%Top of pageText equivalent below for Figure 43: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Queensland with NSP coverage decreased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 43: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in Queensland with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 43

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 43 consists of six graphs
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Queensland with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 800-1,800 in 2009 to 5,100-7,400 in 2011 and decrease gradually to 2,500-3,400 in 2017. The model simulations then remain constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,400 in 2009 to 6,600 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 3,000 in 2017. The median then remains constant to 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,300 in 2009 to 6,300 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 2,900 in 2017. The lower quartile then remains constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,500 in 2009 to 6,800 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 3,100 in 2017. The upper quartile then remains constant to 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Queensland with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations increase very slightly from a range of 800-1,600 in 2009 to 800-2,000 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases very slightly from 1,400 in 2009 to 1,700 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 1,300 in 2009 to 1,600 in 2020.Top of page

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 1,500 in 2009 to 1,8500 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Queensland with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 800-1,600 in 2009 to 1,200-2,300 in 2011 and remain constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 1,400 in 2009 to 2,100 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,300 in 2009 to 1,900 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,500 in 2009 to 2,200 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Queensland with NSP coverage increased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 800-1,600 in 2009 to 700-1,600 in 2011 and increase gradually to 750-1,900 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 1,400 in 2009 to 1,350 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,650 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,300 in 2009 to 1,250 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,500 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,500 in 2009 to 1,450 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,750 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Queensland with NSP coverage decreased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 800-1,600 in 2009 to 1,000-1,900 in 2011 and increase gradually to 1,100-2,200 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 1,400 in 2009 to 1,700 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,900 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,300 in 2009 to 1,600 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,800 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,500 in 2009 to 1,800 in 2011 and increases gradually to 2,000 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Queensland with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 800-1,600 in 2009 to 600-1,400 in 2011 and increase gradually to 600-1,800 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 1,400 in 2009 to 1,200 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,500 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,300 in 2009 to 1,150 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,400 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 1,500 in 2009 to 1,300 in 2011 and increases gradually to 1,600 by 2020.