The Northern Territory model was used to calculate projections of the expected number of HIV (see Figure 37) and HCV (see Figure 38) cases in the future, according to scenarios whereby current syringe distribution levels are maintained or if there are increases or decreases in the provision of syringes through Northern Territory NSPs.

Figure 37: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in the Northern Territory according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 37: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in the Northern Territory with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 37: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in the Northern Territory with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 37: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 37: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 37

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 37 consists of four graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in the Northern Territory with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 0.0005-0.001 in 2009 to 0.002-0.0054 in 2011 and increase gradually to 0.0028-0.0067 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 0.0007 in 2009 to 0.0034 in 2011 and increases gradually to 0.004 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 0.006 in 2009 to 0.0028 in 2011 and increases gradually to 0.0032 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 0.008 in 2009 to 0.0044 in 2011 and increases gradually to 0.0052 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in the Northern Territory with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations decreasevery gradually from a range of 0.0003-0.0008 in 2009 to 0.0001-0.0005 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases very gradually from 0.0005 in 2009 to 0.0003 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases very gradually from 0.0004 in 2009 to 0.0002 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases very gradually from 0.0006 in 2009 to 0.00045 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase slightly from 0.0003- 0.0008 in 2009 to 0.003-0.001 in 2011 and decrease very gradually to 0.0001-0.0006 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases slightly from 0.0005 in 2009 to 0.006 in 2011 and decreases very gradually to 0.0003 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 0.0004 in 2009 to 0.00045 in 2011 and decreases very gradually to 0.0002 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 0.0006 in 2009 to 0.0007 in 2011 and decreases very gradually to 0.0005 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease very gradually from a range of 0.0003-0.0008 in 2009 to 0-0.0005 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases very gradually from 0.0005 in 2009 to 0.0002 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases very gradually from 0.0004 in 2009 to 0.0001 in 2020.Top of page

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases very gradually from 0.0006 in 2009 to 0.0004 in 2020.

Figure 38: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Northern Territory according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 38: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Northern Territory with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 38: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Northern Territory with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 38: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 38: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage increased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 38: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 10%Top of pageText equivalent below for Figure 38: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 38

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 38 consists of six graphs:
  • Projected annual HCV incidence in the Northern Territory with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 6-28 in 2009 to 65-180 in 2011 and decrease gradually to 70-150 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 18 in 2009 to 110 in 2011 and increases gradually to 112 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 16 in 2009 to 95 in 2011 and increases gradually to 105 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 20 in 2009 to 125 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 122 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in the Northern Territory with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations increase gradually from a range of 6-24 in 2009 to 26-73 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases gradually from 12 in 2009 to 48 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 8 in 2009 to 42 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 14 in 2009 to 57 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 6-24 in 2009 to 26-50 in 2011 and increase gradually to 33-87 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 12 in 2009 to 29 in 2011 and increases gradually to 60 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 8 in 2009 to 25 in 2011 and increases gradually to 52 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 14 in 2009 to 35 in 2011 and increases gradually to 70 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage increased by 10%Top of page

    • The 100 model simulations increase gradually from a range of 6-24 in 2009 to 24-69 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases gradually from 12 in 2009 to 45 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 6 in 2009 to 38 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 22 in 2009 to 53 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase gradually from a range of 6-24 in 2009 to 28-78 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases gradually from 12 in 2009 to 52 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 6 in 2009 to 45 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 22 in 2009 to 62 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in the Northern Territory with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase slightly from a range of 6-24 in 2009 to 10-31 in 2011 and increase gradually to 21-62 in 2012.

    • The median of the model simulations increases slightly from 12 in 2009 to 18 in 2011 and increases gradually to 40 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 6 in 2009 to 15 in 2011 and increases gradually to 34 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 22 in 2009 to 23 in 2011 and increases gradually to 48s in 2020.