The New South Wales model was used to calculate projections of the expected number of HIV (see Figure 32) and HCV (see Figure 33) cases in the future, according to scenarios whereby current syringe distribution levels are maintained or if there are increases or decreases in the provision of syringes through New South Wales NSPs.

Figure 32: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in New South Wales according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 32: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in New South Wales with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 32: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in New South Wales with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 32: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in New South Wales with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 32: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in New South Wales with NSP coverage increased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 32: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in New South Wales with NSP coverage decreased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 32: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in New South Wales with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 32

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 32 consists of six graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in New South Wales with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to a range of 250-4,000+ in 2018. By 2020, simulations range from 500 to above 4,000.

    • The median of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to 1,600 in 2018. By 2020, the median is 2,900.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to 900 in 2018. By 2020, the lower quartile is 1,700.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to 2,500 in 2018. By 2020, the upper quartile is 4,000.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in New South Wales with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations decrease gradually from a range of 2-38 in 2009 to 2-30 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases gradually from 12 in 2009 to 6 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 6 in 2009 to 4 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 22 in 2009 to 14 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in New South Wales with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase slightly from a range of 2-40 in 2009 to 2-50 in 2011 and narrows slightly to 2-49 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases slightly from 12 in 2009 to 14 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 13 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 7 in 2009 to 9 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 7 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from 22 in 2009 to 28 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 24 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in New South Wales with NSP coverage increased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 2-40 in 2009 to 2-35 in 2011 and narrows gradually to 1-26 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 12 in 2009 to 10 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 7 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 7 in 2009 to 6 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 3 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 22 in 2009 to 19 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 12 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in New South Wales with NSP coverage decreased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase slightly from a range of 2-40 in 2009 to 2-41 in 2011 and narrows slightly to 2-37 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations remains constant at 12 from 2009 to 2011 and decreases gradually to 9 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 7 from 2009 to 2011 and decreases gradually to 5 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 22 from 2009 to 2011 and decreases gradually to 17 by 2020. Top of page

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in New South Wales with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 2-40 in 2009 to 2-30 in 2011 and narrows gradually to 1-22 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 12 in 2009 to 9 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 5 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 7 in 2009 to 6 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 2 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases slightly from 22 in 2009 to 16 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 10 by 2020.

Figure 33: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in New South Wales according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 33: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in New South Wales with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 33: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in New South Wales with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 33: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in New South Wales with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 33: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in New South Wales with NSP coverage increased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 33: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in New South Wales with NSP coverage decreased by 10%Top of pageText equivalent below for Figure 33: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in New South Wales with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 33

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 33 consists of six graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in New South Wales with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 2,800-5,500 in 2009 to 9,500-13,500 in 2010, narrow slightly to 10,800-13,500 in 2011 and drop sharply to 7,500-9,300 in 2012. The model simulations then decrease gradually to 5,500-6,800 in 2016, remaining constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 3,800 in 2009 to 11,500 in 2010, increases slightly to 11,800 in 2011 and drops sharply to 8,000 in 2012. The median then decreases gradually to 5,700 in 2016, remaining constant to 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 3,800 in 2009 to 11,200 in 2010, increases slightly to 11,500 and drops sharply to 7,600 in 2012. The lower quartile then decreases gradually to 5,400 in 2016, remaining constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 4,000 in 2009 to 12,000 in 2010, increases slightly to 12,100 in 2011 and drops sharply to 8,100 in 2012. The upper quartile then decreases gradually to 5,800 in 2016, remaining constant to 2020. Top of page

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in New South Wales with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations increase very slightly from a range of 2,800-4,500 in 2009 to 3,000-4,800 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases very slightly from 3,600 in 2009 to 4,000 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 3,400 in 2009 to 3,800 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 3,800 in 2009 to 4,200 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in New South Wales with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 2,800-4,500 in 2009 to 3,700-5,800 in 2011 and narrow slightly to 3,500-5,300 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 3,500 in 2009 to 4,800 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 4,500 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 3,400 in 2009 to 4,600 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 4,400 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 3,800 in 2009 to 5,000 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 4,700 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in New South Wales with NSP coverage increased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 2,800-4,500 in 2009 to 2,700-4,300 in 2011 and increase gradually to 3,000-4,600 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 3,500 in 2009 to 3,400 in 2011 and increases gradually to 3,900 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 3,400 in 2009 to 3,300 in 2011 and increases gradually to 3,500 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 3,800 in 2009 to 3,700 in 2011 and increases gradually to 4,000 by 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in New South Wales with NSP coverage decreased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 2,800-4,500 in 2009 to 3,300-5,000 in 2011 and remain constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 3,600 in 2009 to 4,100 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 3,400 in 2009 to 3,900 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 3,700 in 2009 to 4,300 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.Top of page

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in New South Wales with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 2,800-4,500 in 2009 to 2,400-3,800 in 2011 and increase gradually to 2,800-4,500 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases slightly from 3,500 in 2009 to 3,100 in 2011 and increases gradually to 3,500 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 3,400 in 2009 to 3,000 in 2011 and increases gradually to 3,400 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 3,800 in 2009 to 3,300 in 2011 and increases gradually to 3,800 by 2020.