The epidemiological transmission model for HIV and HCV was applied to the population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander IDUs. The model estimated the expected number of HIV and HCV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with and without NSP distribution of sterile injecting equipment (Figure 64). The estimated number of infections averted is presented in Figure 65. An estimated 39 (0-140) HIV infections and 4,241 (4,057-4,841) HCV infections have been averted in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders due to NSPs.

Figure 64: Estimated HIV and HCV incidence among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with and without NSPs

Text equivalent below for Figure 64: Estimated HIV incidence among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 64: Estimated HIV incidence among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders without NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 64: Estimated HCV incidence among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 64: Estimated HCV incidence among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders without NSPs

Text version of Figure 64

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 64 consists of four graphs:
  • Estimated HIV incidence among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations decrease gradually from a range of 0-24 in 1999 to 0-2 in 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations decreases gradually from 1 in 1999 to 0.1 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 0.1 in 1999 to 0 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations decreases gradually from 2 in 1999 to 0.5 in 2009.

  • Estimated HIV incidence among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders without NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations rise dramatically from a range of 0-98 in 1999 to 0-680 in 2000, before decreasing gradually to 0-120 by 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations remains constant at 1 for all years between 1998 and 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations rises from 1 in 1998 to 2 in 1999 before decreasing gradually to 1 by 2009.

  • Estimated HCV incidence among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations remain constant at a range of 580-1,620 from 1998 to 1999 before decreasing dramatically to 10-190 in 2008. The 100 model simulations then increase slightly to 20-210 by 2009.

    • The median of the model simulations remains constant at 1,100 from 1998 to 1999 before decreasing dramatically to 120 by 2008. The median then increases slightly to 140 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 900 from 1998 to 1999 before decreasing dramatically to 100 by 2008. The median then increases slightly to 110 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations remains constant at 1,250 from 1998 to 1999 before decreasing dramatically to 150 by 2008. The median then increases slightly to 180 by 2020.

  • Estimated HCV incidence among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders without NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 580-1,620 in 1998 to 1,900-4,300 in 1999, decrease sharply to 50-300 in 2007 and increase gradually to 80-500 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,100 in 1998 to 3,000 in 2002, decreases sharply to 100 in 2007 before increasing gradually to 250 in 2009.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 900 in 1998 to 2,800 in 1999, decreases sharply to 75 in 2007 and increasing gradually to 200 in 2009.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 1,250 in 1998 to 3,500 in 1999, decreases sharply to 150 in 2007 and increasing gradually to 300 in 2009.Top of page

Figure 65: Estimated cumulative number of HIV and HCV cases averted among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders due to NSPs

Text equivalent below for Figure 65: Estimated cumulative number of HIV cases averted among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders due to NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 65: Estimated cumulative number of HCV cases averted among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders due to NSPs

Text version of Figure 65

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 65 consists of two graphs:
  • Expected cumulative number of HIV cases averted among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders due to NSPs

    • With NSPs (current coverage) the cumulative number of HIV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders increases gradually from 0 in 1998 to 4 in 2009.

    • Without NSPs the cumulative number of HIV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders increases dramatically from 0 in 1999 to 42 in 2009.

  • Expected cumulative number of HCV cases averted among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders due to NSPs

    Top of page
    • With NSPs (current coverage) the cumulative number of HCV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders increases gradually from 0 in 1998 to 4,500 in 2009.

    • Without NSPs the cumulative number of HCV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders increases sharply from 0 in 1998 to 5,400 in 2000 and increases gradually to 8,900 in 2009.