Return on investment 2: evaluating the cost-effectiveness of needle and syringe programs in Australia 2009

Epidemic projections in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders

Page last updated: 2009

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander model was used to calculate projections of the expected number of HIV (see Figure 66) and HCV (see Figure 67) cases in the future, according to scenarios whereby current syringe distribution levels are maintained or if there are increases or decreases in the provision of syringes to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people through NSPs.

Figure 66: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 66: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 66: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 66: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 66: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 66

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 66 consists of four graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase dramatically from a range of 0-6 in 2009 to 0-38 in 2011. By 2020, simulations range from 0 to 37.

    • The median of the model simulations remains at 1 for all years between 1999 and 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations decrease gradually from a range of 0-6 in 2009 to 0-3.5 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations remains at 1 for all years between 1999 and 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase slightly from a range of 0-6 in 2009 to 0-7.5 in 2011 and narrows to 0-4.5 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations remains at 1 for all years between 1999 and 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decrease slightly from a range of 0-6 in 2009 to 0-2.5 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations remains at 1 for all years between 1999 and 2020.

Figure 67: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 67: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 67: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with current NSP distributionTop of pageText equivalent below for Figure 67: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 67: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage increased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 67: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage decreased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 67: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 67

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 67 consists of six graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 50-250 in 2009 to 300-1,400 in 2011 and narrow gradually to 300-1,100 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 150 in 2009 to 800 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 700 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 100 in 2009 to 600 in 2011, decreases slightly to 580 in 2015 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 200 in 2009 to 1,000 in 2011 and decreases gradually to 800 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations increase increases gradually from a range of 50-210 in 2009 to 50-350 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases gradually from 110 in 2009 to 215 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 90 in 2009 to 130 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 130 in 2009 to 230 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 50-210 in 2009 to 80-380 in 2011 and increases gradually to 90-500 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 110 in 2009 to 200 in 2011 and increases gradually to 290 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 90 in 2009 to 130 in 2011 and increases slightly to 210 by 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 130 in 2009 to 250 in 2011 and increases slightly to 360 by 2020.Top of page

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage increased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase gradually from a range of 50-210 in 2009 to 50-390 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases gradually from 110 in 2009 to 200 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 90 in 2009 to 120 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 130 in 2009 to 230 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage decreased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations increase gradually from a range of 50-210 in 2009 to 80-430 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases gradually from 110 in 2009 to 240 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 90 in 2009 to 180 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases gradually from 130 in 2009 to 300 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase slightly from a range of 50-210 in 2009 to 60-215 in 2011 and widens gradually to 60-315 by 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases slightly from 110 in 2009 to 115 in 2011 and increases gradually to 180 by 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations iremains constant at 90 from 2009 to 2011 and increases gradually to 120 by 2020. Top of page

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases slightly from130 in 2009 to 135 in 2011 and increases gradually to 220 by 2020.