Return on investment 2: evaluating the cost-effectiveness of needle and syringe programs in Australia 2009

Epidemic projections in the Australian Capital Territory

Page last updated: 2009

The Australian Capital Territory model was used to calculate projections of the expected number of HIV (see Figure 27) and HCV (see Figure 28) cases in the future, according to scenarios whereby current syringe distribution levels are maintained or if there are changes in the provision of syringes through Australian Capital Territory NSPs.

Figure 27: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in the Australian Capital Territory according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 27: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in the Australian Capital Territory with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 27: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in the Australian Capital Territory with current NSP distributionText equivalent below for Figure 27: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Top of pageText equivalent below for Figure 27: Projections of the expected number of HIV cases in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 27

Figures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 27 consists of four graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in the Australian Capital Territory with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to a range of 0.006-0.048 in 2014. By 2020, simulations range from 0.019 to above 0.1.

    • The median of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to 0.017 in 2014. By 2020, the median is 0.087.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to 0.01 in 2014. By 2020, the lower quartile is 0.05.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increase exponentially from almost 0 in 2009 to 0.021 in 2014. The upper quartile passes above 0.1 by 2019.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in the Australian Capital Territory with the current NSP distribution

    The 100 model simulations, the median, the lower quartile and the upper quartile all remain static, well below 0.01 for all years between 2009 and 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    The 100 model simulations, the median, the lower quartile and the upper quartile all remain static, well below 0.01 for all years between 2009 and 2020.

  • Projected annual HIV incidence in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    The 100 model simulations, the median, the lower quartile and the upper quartile all remain static, well below 0.01 for all years between 2009 and 2020.

Figure 28: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Australian Capital Territory according to different syringe distribution levels

Text equivalent below for Figure 28: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Australian Capital Territory with no NSPsText equivalent below for Figure 28: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Australian Capital Territory with current NSP distribution
Top of pageText equivalent below for Figure 28: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 25%Text equivalent below for Figure 28: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage increased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 28: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 10%Text equivalent below for Figure 28: Projections of the expected number of HCV cases in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage increased by 25%

Text version of Figure 28

Top of pageFigures in this description are approximate as they have been read from the graph.

Figure 28 consists of six graphs:
  • Projected annual HIV incidence in the Australian Capital Territory with no NSPs

    • The 100 model simulations increase sharply from a range of 120-300 in 2009 to 450-750 in 2010, decrease slightly to 520-720 in 2011 and drop sharply to 380-500 in 2012. The model simulations then decrease gradually to 260-380 in 2016, remaining constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases sharply from 200 in 2009 to 780 in 2010 and drops sharply to 560 in 2012. The median then decreases gradually to 350 in 2016, remaining constant to 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 200 in 2009 to 620 in 2010 and drops sharply to 440 in 2012. The lower quartile then decreases gradually to 320 in 2016, remaining constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases sharply from 200 in 2009 to 700 in 2010, decreases slightly to 690 in 2011 and drops sharply to 480 in 2012. The upper quartile then decreases gradually to 370 in 2016, remaining constant to 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in the Australian Capital Territory with the current NSP distribution

    • The 100 model simulations increase very slightly from a range of 130-250 in 2009 to 180-300 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases very slightly from 200 in 2009 to 260 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 180 in 2009 to 220 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases very slightly from 210 in 2009 to 280 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 130-250 in 2009 to 180-320 in 2011 and remain constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 200 in 2009 to 290 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 280 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 180 in 2009 to 260 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 210 in 2009 to 300 in 2011 and decreases slightly to 290 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage increased by 10%

    • The 100 model simulations stay constant from 2009 to 2011 at 130-250 and increase very slightly to 140-255 in 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations stays constant from 2009 to 2011 at 200 and increases very slightly to 210 in 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations stays constant from 2009 to 2011 at 180 and increases very slightly to 185 in 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations stays constant from 2009 to 2011 at 210 and increases very slightly to 220 in 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage decreased by 10%Top of page

    • The 100 model simulations increase from a range of 130-250 in 2009 to 150-300 in 2011 and remain constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 200 in 2009 to 250 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 180 in 2009 to 220 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 210 in 2009 to 270 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

  • Projected annual HCV incidence in the Australian Capital Territory with NSP coverage increased by 25%

    • The 100 model simulations decreases slightly from a range of 130-250 in 2009 to 150-300 in 2011 and remain constant to 2020.

    • The median of the model simulations increases from 200 in 2009 to 270 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The lower quartile of the model simulations increases from 180 in 2009 to 210 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.

    • The upper quartile of the model simulations increases from 210 in 2009 to 290 in 2011 and remains constant to 2020.