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PDF printable version of Skinner's Three Card Trick On Health Funding (PDF 224 KB)

9 November 2012

Health Minister Tanya Plibersek said the Gillard Government’s investment in the NSW health system continues to grow despite claims to the contrary from the O’Farrell Government.

“These claims are part of a desperate attempt by the O’Farrell Government to divert attention from the $3 billion in cuts it has made to its own health system,” said Ms Plibersek.

“Jillian Skinner’s three card trick will not fool NSW patients, who are well aware the labour expense cap she has slapped on her department will mean 3,600 health jobs will go.”

Ms Plibersek said as well as the $775 million labour expenses cap the NSW Budget also includes a $2.2 billion efficiency saving over four years.

“These savage cuts will impact frontline services, blowing out waiting times and eroding the standard of patient care.”

In the meantime, she said the Gillard Government’s 2012-13 Budget update says that funding for health in NSW will increase by 23% over the next four years, going from $4.7 billion in 2012-2013 to $5.8 billion in 2015-16. That is an extra $1.1 billion.

The modest adjustment in growth forecasts in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) were based on a formula agreed to by the NSW Government.

The adjustment is based on ABS revised population figures and lower than anticipated increases in health costs as a result of the high Australian dollar. (See ABS attached letter.)

NSW is also receiving an additional $127 million in GST payments in the 2011-12 financial year but being paid this financial year.

Attachment – Statement on Revisions to Australia’s Population Estimates

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is responsible for Australia’s official population estimates, which are published quarterly.

The population estimates are based on the 5-yearly Census on Population and Housing, which was most recently conducted in 2011. A range of adjustments are made to the Census results to obtain an estimate of the resident population of Australia. Each Census leads to a revision of the population estimates. The preliminary incorporation of results from the most recent Census caused a downward revision of Australia’s population as at 30 June 2011 of 294,000. This adjustment is known as the intercensal discrepancy.

A key contributor to the downward revision was the introduction of an improved method to estimate the undercount in the Census. This new method improved the matching between the Census Post Enumeration Survey (which is used to measure the Census undercount) and the Census itself, leading into a reduction in the Census undercount. In other words, the new method eliminated persons who would have previously been over-counted under the method used for 2006.

The result of the introduction of the new method is more accurate population estimates than were previously available.

Information on the revision to population estimates was provided in Australian Demographic Statistics, December 2011 (ABS catalogue number 3101.0) released on 20 July 2012. Information on the estimation of the 2011 Census undercount was published in Census of Population and Housing – Details of Undercount, 2011 (ABS catalogue number 2940.0) released on 21 July 2012.

Final 2011 Census rebased population estimates will be released the December quarter issue of 3101.0 on 20 June 2013. This is not likely to result in any significant changes to the estimates for recent periods, although as foreshadowed in March quarter 2012 issue of 3101.0 the intercensal discrepancy is likely to be smoothed in over a longer period (which will only affect population estimates for periods prior to June 2011).

The ABS is an independent statutory authority and is not subject to any Government direction on the methods that is uses to compile its statistics. The ABS produces its statistics using the highest professional standards. The ABS is open about its methods and consults widely, with the final decision on the methods adopted resting with the Australian Statistician.

Peter Harper
Deputy Australian Statistician
Population, Labour and Social Statistics
Australian Bureau of Statistics

8 November 2011