Appendix D: Full regression results from Section 4 of the main report

This appendix provides the full regression results for the time-series regression models that are reported in Section 4 of the EMSN Review of Capping Arrangements. These regression results provide the basis of the predicted values that are illustrated in Figures 4.1 through to 4.12.

Page last updated: 26 July 2011

In addition, Table 4.2 of the main report presents the partial regression results, focusing on the impact of EMSN caps. In this appendix, the full models are shown, including those partial results shown in Table 4.2. This appendix should be read in conjunction with Section of 4 of the main report.

There is only one year of data available following the introduction of the EMSN caps. This makes it difficult to draw any robust conclusions about the likely impact that capping arrangements have had on the outcomes of interest: fees, Medicare benefits and out of pocket (OOP) costs. Particular attention needs to be paid in the treatment of the strong annual cycles present in the EMSN data. This annual pattern is primarily related to the structure and operation of EMSN policy; namely, as more people qualify for EMSN benefits throughout the calendar year, more benefits are paid.

We address these issues in our analysis in three ways. Firstly, we use monthly data from January 2000 to December 2010 to provide us with a greater number of time periods pre and post the introduction of EMSN caps. Secondly, to adjust for annual cycles in trends we use an autoregressive moving average time-series regression. The regression model for each outcome includes the value of the outcome for the previous time period (or lag) as a predictor to adjust for any existing time trend in the data that was unrelated to the EMSN policy changes. The model also included the residuals from the regression lagged by 12 time periods to adjust for the annual seasonality observed in the data. The effect of the EMSN over time and the introduction of the EMSN cap can then be estimated independent of any underlying trends or seasonality.

Finally, we include an indicator for the month of December to capture the end of year patterns observed in many of the outcome measures. Due to the strong seasonal trends in the data and because there are only 12 months of data since the introduction of EMSN caps, we have not included a post EMSN cap time trend. Any post-capping time trend would be confounded by the annual seasonality trend when only 12 months of data exist. Instead, a single indicator variable is included in the model for all months in 2010 to capture the effect of the EMSN cap, after accounting for trends over time.

Before turning to the results, Tables D1 and D2 detail how the information presented in the regression models should be interpreted. Table D1 explains the variables used in the models and Table D2 provides information on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model outputs.

Table D1: Variables used in the model

Variable name
Interpretation
Type of variable
Period
Notes
Average feeThe average fee charged for items claimed by service group i in month t.OrdinalAllDependent variable
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN The average Medicare benefit received by patients for items claimed for service group i in month t.OrdinalAllDependent variable
Average Medicare rebateThe average Medicare rebate received by patients for items claimed for service group i in month t.OrdinalAllDependent variable
Ave OOP costThe average OOP cost incurred by patients for items claimed for service group i in month t.OrdinalAllDependent variable
pretimeTime trend before EMSN ordinalJan 2000 to Jan 2004Independent variable. Takes on the value 1 in Jan 2000 through to 48 in Dec 2003
emsnCaptures the immediate effect of the introduction of the EMSN dummyJan 2004 to Dec 2010Independent variable. Takes on the value of 1 from Jan 2004 to Dec 2010 , 0 otherwise
emsntimeTime trend post EMSN introductionordinalJan 2004 to Dec 2010Independent variable. Takes on the value 1 in Jan 2004 through to 84 in Dec 2010
decdum2Captures seasonal December effectsdummyDec each yearIndependent variable. Takes on the value of 1 in Dec of each year , 0 otherwise
scapEstimates the impact of capping arrangements. It captures the deviation from existing time trends and seasonality from January 2010 when the EMSN cap was introduceddummyJan 2010 to Dec 2010Independent variable. Takes on the value of 1 from Jan 2010 to Dec 2010, 0 otherwise
_consThe value of the constant signifies the average amount (e.g. fee) for items claimed for service group i in January 2000.InterceptJan 2000
Table D2: Explanatory notes on the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model outputs
ARMATIME SERIES AUTOCORRELATIONS
AR
L1.lagged dependent variable from previous time period (i.e. previous month)
MA
L12.residual lagged by 12 months
/sigmaWhite noise
Prob > Q12Test of stationarity of model. If significant then model is non-stationary.

Table D3: Regression results for obstetrics (including all time points and all obstetric items)
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
-0.91
1.32
0.43
1.53
0.06
0.15
-1.43
1.05
emsn
-45.27
70.42
32.38
74.49
3.08
7.23
-76.72
56.32
emsntime
2.19
0.59
1.56
0.45
0.16
0.06
0.69
0.75
decdum2
50.75
2.65
50.63
2.80
0.83
0.21
-3.25
2.27
scap
-165.39
31.69
-135.38
32.28
7.97
3.37
-24.63
22.88
_cons
147.21
62.03
25.45
66.77
30.49
5.57
120.74
34.04
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.88
0.06
0.81
0.10
0.92
0.04
0.92
0.06
ma
L12.
-0.08
0.11
0.26
0.10
0.11
0.11
0.02
0.08
/sigma
13.66
0.76
10.35
0.44
0.75
0.05
9.59
0.62
Prob> Q12
.436
.183
.644
.766
Interpretation example of coefficients in Table D3: The coefficients for _cons indicate that the average fee charged for obstetric items in Jan 2000 was $147.21. The pretime coefficient indicates that between 2000 and 2004, average obstetric fees per item decreased by $0.91 every month. The size of standard error in relation to the coefficient indicates that this trend was not statistically significant. The coefficient for the emsn variable shows that the instantaneous effect of the EMSN was that fees fell by $47.27 – but again this was not a statistically significant result. The coefficient for the time trend following the introduction of the EMSN (emsntime) is highly significant and indicates that after 2004 average fees charged per obstetric item increased by $2.19 every month. The scap coefficient indicates that average fees fell by $165.39 when the EMSN was introduced. As noted in the text of the main report, this result should be interpreted with caution as it reflects, in part, the anticipatory behaviour that occurred in last few months of 2009 – just prior to the introduction of capping arrangements.

Table D4: Regression results for obstetrics (without Dec 09, Jan 10 or items 16401 and 16404) (b)
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
-0.48
0.72
0.51
0.86
0.07
0.22
-1.13
0.64
Emsn
-24.79
36.35
40.51
42.36
3.48
11.24
-64.25
32.28
emsntime
1.40
0.27
1.21
0.28
0.12
0.07
0.09
0.56
decdum2
38.12
3.37
42.11
1.96
0.59
0.20
-7.29
2.64
Scap
-57.03
19.23
-93.82
15.15
12.26
2.84
40.77
24.98
_cons
141.58
34.47
24.82
37.71
30.67
8.97
119.02
18.89
ARMA
Ar
0.71
0.08
0.72
0.10
0.93
0.05
L1.
0.86
0.11
Ma
0.17
0.12
0.52
0.08
0.25
0.08
L12.
12.08
0.59
9.06
0.40
0.73
0.05
0.08
0.08
/sigma
8.88
0.49
Prob > Q12
0.352
0.179
0.709
0.939
Note: obstetrics (b): December 2009 and January 2010 have been dropped as influential observations and ITEMS 16401, 16404 (new in 2010) were dropped for comparability

Table D5: Regression results for specialist (excluding items 16401 and 16404)
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
0.16
0.03
-0.06
0.08
-0.06
0.02
0.21
0.06
emsn
7.45
1.62
-3.50
4.18
-3.76
0.98
10.34
3.23
emsntime
0.16
0.03
0.06
0.04
-0.01
0.02
0.10
0.03
decdum2
-1.10
0.29
2.20
0.15
-0.55
0.20
-3.40
0.15
scap
-2.24
1.20
-3.38
1.09
-0.72
0.97
1.07
0.78
_cons
74.81
0.96
55.84
3.14
55.66
0.61
19.29
2.54
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.81
0.05
0.86
0.03
0.83
0.05
0.83
0.05
ma
L12.
0.86
0.11
1.00
.
0.75
0.11
0.83
0.09
/sigma
0.65
0.05
0.61
0.03
0.37
0.03
0.66
0.03
Prob > Q12
0.002
0.006
0.021
<.0001
Table D6: Regression results for specialist attendances (including items 16401 and 16404)
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
0.16
0.03
-0.06
0.08
-0.06
0.02
0.21
0.07
emsn
7.45
1.64
-3.54
4.26
-3.76
0.98
10.38
3.39
emsntime
0.16
0.03
0.06
0.04
-0.01
0.02
0.10
0.03
decdum2
-1.09
0.29
2.20
0.14
-0.55
0.20
-3.40
0.15
scap
-1.77
1.19
-3.33
1.08
-0.69
0.98
1.52
0.77
_cons
74.82
0.97
55.85
3.22
55.66
0.61
19.29
2.69
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.81
0.05
0.86
0.03
0.83
0.05
0.84
0.05
ma
L12.
0.86
0.11
1.00
1211.90
0.75
0.11
0.83
0.09
/sigma
0.65
0.05
0.61
371.46
0.37
0.03
0.66
0.03
Prob > Q12
0.002
0.006
0.021
<.0001

Table D7: Regression results for consultant physician
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
0.00
0.04
-0.10
0.07
-0.12
0.04
0.11
0.07
emsn
-1.01
1.83
-6.27
3.20
-7.25
2.12
5.10
3.50
emsntime
0.20
0.03
0.16
0.04
0.11
0.03
0.03
0.03
decdum2
-1.63
0.64
1.13
0.27
-1.23
0.74
-2.52
0.12
scap
-0.60
2.27
-2.35
1.31
-0.48
2.26
1.91
0.63
_cons
100.10
0.98
86.51
2.20
86.61
1.31
13.75
2.81
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.77
0.07
0.82
0.05
0.81
0.06
0.85
0.05
ma
L12.
0.61
0.05
0.65
0.05
0.53
0.06
0.83
0.08
/sigma
0.88
0.04
0.95
0.04
0.77
0.04
0.58
0.03
Prob > Q12
0.043
0.354
0.083
<.0001

Table D8: Regression results for psychiatry
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
0.03
0.12
-0.09
0.27
-0.13
0.10
0.10
0.25
emsn
-0.95
5.88
-5.43
13.68
-8.13
5.11
3.67
12.43
emsntime
0.39
0.07
0.38
0.10
0.17
0.06
0.02
0.07
decdum2
-0.88
0.83
6.50
0.60
0.22
0.58
-6.93
0.36
scap
-4.02
4.25
-9.97
2.30
-3.38
3.89
5.37
1.37
_cons
146.47
4.14
128.82
12.25
129.02
3.79
17.71
11.85
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.82
0.06
0.81
0.06
0.81
0.06
0.84
0.06
ma
L12.
0.62
0.08
0.77
0.07
0.51
0.08
1.00
1163.37
/sigma
1.60
0.06
2.35
0.09
1.41
0.06
1.47
855.85
Prob > Q12<.0001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001

Table D9: Regression results for optometry
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
-0.06
0.03
-0.06
0.03
-0.06
0.03
0.00
0.00
emsn
-3.62
1.77
-3.45
1.75
-3.45
1.72
-0.14
0.02
emsntime
-0.01
0.02
-0.01
0.02
-0.01
0.02
0.00
0.00
decdum2
-0.07
0.20
-0.03
0.19
-0.05
0.19
-0.04
0.00
scap
-0.92
1.50
-0.95
1.45
-0.93
1.46
0.02
0.02
_cons
53.16
1.45
52.55
1.44
52.54
1.41
0.58
0.01
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.89
0.05
0.89
0.05
0.89
0.05
0.72
0.06
ma
L12.
0.72
0.09
0.73
0.09
0.72
0.09
0.22
0.08
/sigma
0.31
0.02
0.31
0.02
0.31
0.02
0.01
0.00
Prob > Q12
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.837

Table D10: Regression results for miscellaneous diagnostic procedures and investigations
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
0.06
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.03
emsn
4.35
0.81
2.63
0.76
1.75
0.73
1.98
1.32
emsntime
0.07
0.01
0.05
0.01
0.05
0.01
0.01
0.01
decdum2
0.48
0.87
1.69
0.45
0.44
0.53
-1.09
0.07
scap
-1.30
0.68
-1.08
0.53
-0.80
0.57
0.17
0.29
_cons
70.09
0.51
61.36
0.53
61.40
0.47
8.78
1.02
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.55
0.08
0.52
0.10
0.57
0.08
0.82
0.05
ma
L12.
0.50
0.11
0.50
0.10
0.46
0.11
0.66
0.07
/sigma
0.80
0.05
0.77
0.05
0.69
0.04
0.29
0.02
Prob > Q12
0.006
0.011
0.010
0.000

Table D11: Regression results for ART services
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
3.65
0.85
1.49
1.24
0.37
0.14
1.63
2.20
emsn
282.59
38.05
232.72
60.85
28.89
8.11
35.99
115.90
emsntime
8.13
0.42
7.39
0.66
0.00
0.14
1.37
0.86
decdum2
-287.30
17.96
-181.22
12.27
-84.45
9.12
-124.40
8.75
scap
68.82
36.01
-200.55
35.18
211.43
7.31
200.27
51.66
_cons
594.38
30.14
433.23
51.38
448.35
5.58
166.22
108.84
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.22
0.11
0.54
0.07
-0.30
0.14
0.69
0.09
ma
L12.
0.39
0.10
0.49
0.08
0.53
0.08
0.63
0.10
/sigma
52.77
3.24
43.11
2.47
20.23
1.19
28.51
1.64
Prob > Q12
0.017
0.242
0.311
0.109

Table D12: Regression results for radiation oncology
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
0.42
0.51
0.39
0.49
0.24
0.39
0.10
0.05
emsn
24.15
25.83
22.83
24.74
13.03
19.88
3.72
2.40
emsntime
0.10
0.39
0.19
0.33
0.07
0.26
-0.12
0.03
decdum2
-2.75
2.55
0.57
1.48
-1.11
1.98
-2.86
0.38
scap
-0.06
32.66
-3.24
23.67
-1.25
13.66
2.33
1.14
_cons
146.59
20.00
130.13
19.74
131.17
14.22
14.81
1.99
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.93
0.07
0.92
0.07
0.92
0.07
0.70
0.07
ma
L12.
0.26
0.10
0.32
0.08
0.25
0.10
0.66
0.09
/sigma
3.12
0.11
3.05
0.10
2.51
0.09
1.24
0.07
Prob > Q12
0.294
0.267
0.308
0.004

Table D13: Regression results for anaesthetics
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
0.14
0.03
0.01
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.12
0.06
emsn
5.40
1.57
0.48
2.43
0.47
2.07
5.08
2.64
emsntime
0.32
0.02
0.19
0.03
0.13
0.03
0.12
0.02
decdum2
2.76
0.47
4.44
0.37
3.06
0.39
-1.89
0.28
scap
-4.96
1.40
-3.16
0.87
-2.70
1.99
-1.22
0.72
_cons
80.53
1.16
68.82
1.95
68.78
1.48
12.02
2.20
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.53
0.08
0.65
0.06
0.67
0.05
0.77
0.07
ma
L12.
0.29
0.09
0.45
0.08
0.41
0.08
0.38
0.10
/sigma
1.35
0.08
1.22
0.07
1.03
0.05
0.80
0.05
Prob > Q12
0.519
0.147
0.042
0.944

Table D14: Regression results for vascular procedures
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
0.83
1.06
0.31
0.58
0.14
0.26
0.57
0.59
emsn
54.56
49.08
31.99
26.95
2.97
12.97
21.79
27.50
emsntime
3.20
0.27
2.02
0.20
0.04
0.13
1.20
0.21
decdum2
-17.71
5.66
20.67
3.94
-5.62
1.57
-37.50
2.64
scap
-95.70
13.22
-105.72
9.33
6.04
5.95
10.53
8.13
_cons
198.94
45.76
115.82
24.09
118.63
10.49
82.34
24.38
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.59
0.05
0.58
0.06
0.76
0.06
0.72
0.06
ma
L12.
0.26
0.07
0.40
0.08
0.45
0.10
0.45
0.08
/sigma
13.89
0.65
11.58
0.58
4.86
0.27
8.18
0.49
Prob > Q12
0.113
0.001
0.004
0.000

Table D15: Regression results for ophthalmology
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
0.44
0.15
0.06
0.24
0.03
0.08
0.38
0.43
emsn
25.90
5.80
10.44
10.39
4.41
3.71
15.68
21.79
emsntime
1.03
0.10
0.83
0.14
0.27
0.07
0.13
0.15
decdum2
3.98
3.44
14.55
2.57
2.10
2.86
-9.99
0.94
scap
-13.86
5.60
-23.71
3.60
-4.51
3.94
12.77
2.07
_cons
234.58
4.31
209.88
8.08
210.58
2.40
25.58
19.31
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.50
0.08
0.63
0.08
0.47
0.08
0.83
0.05
ma
L12.
0.29
0.08
0.50
0.07
0.46
0.08
0.71
0.07
/sigma
6.75
0.46
7.13
0.42
4.67
0.31
3.22
0.14
Prob > Q12
0.009
0.028
0.000
0.026

Table D16: Regression results for plastic and reconstructive surgery
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
-1.09
0.22
-0.60
0.25
-0.67
0.18
-0.48
0.12
emsn
-54.50
8.71
-28.34
10.51
-39.33
9.76
-30.68
5.61
emsntime
1.33
0.18
0.92
0.21
0.05
0.19
0.50
0.11
decdum2
14.69
4.34
15.83
2.09
-0.96
1.06
-1.64
4.30
scap
-24.06
14.55
-25.92
8.96
3.03
10.48
-1.84
5.00
_cons
357.29
4.91
296.68
5.99
300.16
4.50
62.00
2.71
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.60
0.06
0.75
0.06
0.89
0.04
0.64
0.06
ma
L12.
0.10
0.09
0.17
0.09
0.07
0.11
0.13
0.12
/sigma
9.22
0.55
6.94
0.44
3.51
0.19
4.73
0.21
Prob > Q12
0.581
0.545
0.807
0.981

Table D17: Regression results for other therapeutic procedures
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
-0.15
0.06
-0.17
0.11
-0.17
0.07
0.02
0.02
emsn
-8.38
3.10
-9.11
5.32
-9.32
3.26
0.58
0.83
emsntime
0.08
0.04
0.07
0.05
0.03
0.04
0.02
0.01
decdum2
0.52
0.64
1.42
0.31
0.09
0.73
-1.01
0.11
scap
-1.31
1.66
-2.63
2.37
-0.62
2.38
0.29
0.33
_cons
88.11
2.08
78.43
4.00
78.49
2.28
9.67
0.56
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.81
0.07
0.88
0.06
0.85
0.07
0.80
0.05
ma
L12.
1.68
0.24
0.60
0.08
1.70
0.26
0.71
0.08
/sigma
0.58
0.09
0.87
0.04
0.46
0.07
0.32
0.02
Prob > Q12
0.005
0.078
0.087
0.001

Table D18: Regression results for obstetric ultrasound
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
0.17
0.19
0.08
0.33
-0.16
0.11
0.43
0.14
emsn
7.51
12.20
5.22
12.00
-9.92
5.35
20.45
5.83
emsntime
0.04
0.27
-0.07
0.22
-0.15
0.11
0.02
0.11
decdum2
1.54
12.89
6.78
4.02
1.09
7.97
-5.53
0.80
scap
-2.60
12.09
-6.18
13.43
4.27
11.73
5.63
5.66
_cons
116.12
2.58
77.10
4.38
85.68
1.30
25.18
2.46
ARMA
ar
L1.
-0.04
0.11
0.59
0.06
-0.34
0.03
0.78
0.05
ma
L12.
-328.20
30256.46
0.39
0.06
0.05
0.12
0.62
0.07
/sigma
0.02
2.05
5.53
0.20
5.18
0.16
2.59
0.13
Prob > Q12
0.998
0.134
0.219
0.844

Table D19: Regression results for other ultrasound
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
-0.15
0.08
-0.32
0.13
-0.34
0.08
0.17
0.17
emsn
-6.29
3.72
-16.05
5.83
-17.25
3.65
9.36
8.56
emsntime
-0.13
0.05
-0.06
0.07
-0.10
0.05
-0.07
0.04
decdum2
0.63
1.04
2.71
0.51
0.31
0.91
-1.98
0.10
scap
-1.86
5.41
-2.71
4.28
-0.31
3.61
0.65
1.45
_cons
160.71
2.07
140.19
3.47
140.64
1.91
20.71
8.38
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.84
0.07
0.87
0.06
0.86
0.07
0.92
0.03
ma
L12.
0.25
0.10
0.34
0.09
0.21
0.12
0.73
0.07
/sigma
1.57
0.08
1.70
0.07
1.49
0.07
0.55
0.03
Prob > Q12
0.223
0.716
0.167
0.000

Table D20: Regression results for general radiology and other diagnostic imaging
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
-0.11
0.04
-0.18
0.05
-0.18
0.05
0.06
0.02
emsn
-4.93
1.80
-8.76
2.46
-9.02
2.09
2.89
0.84
emsntime
-0.08
0.03
-0.02
0.04
-0.03
0.04
-0.05
0.01
decdum2
2.65
0.87
2.96
0.65
2.12
0.82
-0.41
0.06
scap
-1.48
1.68
-1.99
2.25
-1.43
2.01
-0.17
0.53
_cons
90.96
1.23
82.59
1.61
82.49
1.31
8.76
0.48
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.73
0.07
0.81
0.05
0.80
0.05
0.87
0.04
ma
L12.
0.51
0.10
0.55
0.11
0.51
0.11
0.61
0.07
/sigma
1.23
0.06
1.23
0.05
1.18
0.05
0.25
0.01
Prob > Q12
0.005
0.009
0.011
0.854

Table D21: Regression results for pathology
Average fee
Average Medicare rebate + EMSN
Average Medicare rebate
Average OOP
Coef.
Std. Err.
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
Coef.
Std. Err
pretime
-0.05
0.02
-0.04
0.02
-0.04
0.02
0.00
0.01
emsn
-2.53
0.79
-2.28
0.75
-2.33
0.76
-0.21
0.72
emsntime
-0.04
0.01
-0.04
0.01
-0.04
0.01
0.00
0.00
decdum2
-0.12
0.10
-0.08
0.09
-0.14
0.11
-0.04
0.02
scap
-0.28
0.52
-0.32
0.86
-0.19
0.89
0.07
0.06
_cons
25.87
0.52
24.87
0.48
24.88
0.48
0.99
0.65
ARMA
ar
L1.
0.90
0.05
0.90
0.05
0.90
0.05
0.95
0.03
ma
L12.
0.46
0.09
0.46
0.09
0.46
0.08
0.17
0.07
/sigma
0.19
0.01
0.19
0.01
0.18
0.01
0.04
0.00
Prob > Q12
0.009
0.030
0.045
0.002